Citi Global Economic Surprise Index and Baltic Dry Index The divergence between the Baltic Dry Index and the Citi Global Economic Surprise Index suggests that “global economy is likely to bottom soon.” Picture source: Nomura
S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Picture source: Oxford Economics and Macrobond
Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by 24%, and the average recession reduced GDP by less than 2%. Picture source: Capital Group
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the large divergence between the S&P 500 Total Return and the U.S. economic surprise. See also “S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction.” Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
The Longest Economic Expansion in American History The U.S. GDP has grown for 121 consecutive months since the Great Recession. This is officially the longest U.S. economic expansion in history. See also “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Pictures source: CNBC
