Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. S&P 500 12-Month Earnings Surprise Chart suggesting that second quarter earnings could surprise to the upside. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. GDP – Economic Recovery Phase When will the U.S. economy recover? Image: Oxford Economics
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The US LEI declined 0.3 percent in December and suggests economic growth is likely to stabilize around 2% this year. Image: The Conference Board
China Monthly Economic Indicators China recovery is far from complete, as demand remains weak. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
World GDP – OECD Global Economic Outlook According to the OECD, the coronavirus crisis means no V-shaped recovery, as the consequences will be severe and long-lasting. Image: Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development
U.S. IG Credit Spread and S&P 500 vs. Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index Chart suggesting that since mid-May, the rally has been driven by positive macroeconomic factors. Image: BofA Global Research
Small Businesses Very Bearish about the Economic Outlook 40% of small businesses expect a recovery sometime in 2021, and 19% between 2022-2024. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index and 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Are bonds risky? The Citi Economic Surprise Index suggests that bond yields could rise. Image: Renaissance Macro Research
New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index and U.S. GDP The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index does not bode well for US GDP. This is the fifth consecutive week in negative double digit for the New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan