U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Uncertainty in economic policy has often led to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets anticipate the worst during unclear periods. When the situation becomes clearer, stocks tend to recover strongly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In February, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3%, reflecting persistent economic challenges for the U.S. economy. Image: The Conference Board
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.
Citi Economic Surprise Index The falling Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that economic data is no longer surpassing expectations, but this doesn’t necessarily signal a sudden economic downturn. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Economic Surprise – CPI Surprise The improving economic surprise index and favorable macroeconomic conditions suggest that U.S. equities may better withstand inflation compared to previous cycles. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Economic growth is a driver of earnings growth, as it creates opportunities for businesses to expand their operations, increase sales, and generate higher profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. is on the rise, signaling that economic data releases are exceeding analyst expectations and pointing to a positive momentum in the U.S. economic performance. Image: BofA Global Research