U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In May, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.1%, suggesting that economic growth in 2025 may slow significantly compared to 2024. Image: The Conference Board
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes poorly for overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Uncertainty in economic policy has often led to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets anticipate the worst during unclear periods. When the situation becomes clearer, stocks tend to recover strongly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citi Economic Surprise Index The falling Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that economic data is no longer surpassing expectations, but this doesn’t necessarily signal a sudden economic downturn. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A rising U.S. Economic Surprise Index is often associated with positive equity performance due to enhanced investor sentiment and expectations of continued economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank