U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. and Recessions Leading economic indicators are still trending upward. The U.S. economy is growing, but more slowly. Image: Calamos Investments LLC
U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Image: Oxford Economics
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Decreased in Sept. LEI for the U.S. decreased 0.1% in September and suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing, but more slowly. Image: The Conference Board
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Surveys and Average Probability of U.S. Recession The probability of U.S. recession increases to 39% for 2020, based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Image: J.P. Morgan
European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Inflows and EUR/USD European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) inflows usually suggest a weaker U.S. dollar. Image: Morgan Stanley
U.S. Economic Data Chart showing that U.S. economic data revisions have turned negative. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Total Debt to GDP Ratio and Economic Growth by Cycle This nice chart clearly shows that U.S. GDP is weaker today than in the past, despite higher debt levels. Image: Real Investment Advice
City Economic Surprise Index – U.S. Economy vs. Global Economy Nice chart showing that the U.S. relative economic outperformance. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
NFIB – U.S. Small Business Economics Trends U.S. small business economy and hiring plans remain strong. Image: BCA Research