Recession – Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. U.S. Industrial Production The Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests a contraction in U.S. industrial production. Image: BofA Global Research
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.8% in October, suggesting a recession is increasingly likely before year-end and could last through mid-2023. Image: The Conference Board
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index and the LEI are screaming that a U.S. recession is around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 60 Day Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Is the worst of the bond sell-off over? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth Economic growth is a driver of earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. continues to rise, which is good news. Image: The Daily Shot
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. S&P 500 12-Month Earnings Surprise U.S. earnings revisions suggest negative economic surprises. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Economic Composite Index vs. S&P 500 EPS YoY % Change U.S. economic activity is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors be worried? Image: Real Investment Advice
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Should investors expect U.S. Treasuries to rally? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Inflation Surprise – Economic Surprise The risk of stagflation in the euro area is increasing significantly. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond