The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.3% in February, suggesting a recession for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Image: The Conference Board
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The LEI and the Economic Output Composite Index are screaming that a U.S. recession is around the corner. Image: Real Investment Advice
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. is still rising, which could suggest a higher terminal fed funds rate. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI The current reading of the U.S. LEI could result in lower ISM in the next few months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Trade-Weighted Dollar vs. G10 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index Will the U.S. dollar trend weaker in 2023? Image: BCA Research
Economic Composite Index vs. S&P 500 EPS YoY % Change U.S. economic activity is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors be worried? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. GDP, Inflation and Unemployment – FOMC Economic Projections The Fed is forecasting an unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2023. Image: The Daily Shot
Recession – Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. U.S. Industrial Production The Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests a contraction in U.S. industrial production. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 60 Day Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Is the worst of the bond sell-off over? Image: Morgan Stanley Research