Emerging Markets Monetary Policy vs. Economic Cycle (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that EM monetary policy easing is likely to increase economic activity in the coming months. Image: Topdown Charts
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The US LEI declined 0.3 percent in December and suggests economic growth is likely to stabilize around 2% this year. Image: The Conference Board
What is the Probability that the U.S. Enters an Economic Recession over the Next 12 Months? The latest edition of BofA’s US credit investor survey shows that recession fears have dropped to 16.3%. Image: BofA US Credit Investor Survey
Global Economic Strength Indices (Imports/Exports, Confidence, Inflation) Global trade is recovering after a period of weakness. That’s good news for inflation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Return vs. Economic Data and Central Bank Balance Sheets Charts suggesting that economic data drives S&P 500 returns, not central bank balance sheets. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Economic Policy Uncertainty During U.S. Presidential Election Years Chart suggesting that historically, economic policy uncertainty is higher in U.S. presidential election years, particularly uncertainty related to tax policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Economic Expansion The current economic cycle is the longest on record, but the weakest of the post-WWII era. Image: Wells Fargo Securities International Limited
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics
Central Banks – Market Risk Trend and Economic Policy Trend Chart suggesting that risk assets’ sensitivity to political risks has been neutralized by central banks’ QE and dovish monetary policy stance. Image: Image: BofA Global Research
Correlation – Euro Equities and Economic Surprise The correlation between euro equities and economic surprise has diverged recently. Image: Oxford Economics