U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to sustain robust growth in 2026 and 2027, with core inflation steadily moving toward the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2027 and unemployment slightly decreasing. Image: Deutsche Bank
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index Having rebounded from negative territory earlier this year, the GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index recently surged to its highest level, indicating a significant positive shift in economic sentiment on social media. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes poorly for overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index The recent decline in the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that the economy is currently underperforming analysts’ expectations. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Uncertainty in economic policy has often led to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets anticipate the worst during unclear periods. When the situation becomes clearer, stocks tend to recover strongly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Citi Economic Surprise Index The falling Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index indicates that economic data is no longer surpassing expectations, but this doesn’t necessarily signal a sudden economic downturn. Image: Bloomberg