Economic Composite Index vs. S&P 500 EPS YoY % Change U.S. economic activity is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors be worried? Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI The Economic Output Composite Index suggests the U.S. economy is dangerously close to contraction. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.4% in May, suggesting a weaker economic activity in the near term. Image: The Conference Board
Citi Economic Surprise Index The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. continues its decline. Will the Fed be more dovish than expected? Image: The Daily Shot
Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Should investors expect U.S. Treasuries to rally? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Inflation Surprise – Economic Surprise The risk of stagflation in the euro area is increasing significantly. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Percent of Time the S&P 500 Has Risen during Economic Expansions Economic expansions tend to be bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Truist
Economic Growth vs. M2 Velocity The decline in economic growth has coincided with a collapse in M2 velocity Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Debts, Deficits and Economic Growth The rise in the U.S. deficit and debt has coincided with declining economic growth rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Economy – FMS Economic Expectations Has the global economy growth peaked? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey