The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The US LEI declined 0.3 percent in December and suggests economic growth is likely to stabilize around 2% this year. Image: The Conference Board
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Fed Funds Rate Will the Fed’s three rate cuts be enough to lift the U.S. economy? Image: Oxford Economics
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. and Recessions Leading economic indicators are still trending upward. The U.S. economy is growing, but more slowly. Image: Calamos Investments LLC
U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Calibrated Recession Index The Calibrated Recession Index suggests a low probability of U.S. recession over the next 4-6 months. U.S. recession odds for 2020 are 40%. Image: Oxford Economics
S&P 500 and Leading Economic Index (LEI) This chart shows that stimulus has saved the U.S. stock market each time. Saved once again? Image: Stifel
Conference Board Leading Economic Index for U.S. (LEI) LEI suggests that the U.S. economy should continue to expand in H2 2019. Image: Ken Fisher
Copper to Gold Ratio and Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) When the copper-to-gold ratio decreases, it is an early warning signal for the economy, meaning that growth optimism is fading. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Dollar Index vs. Reserves (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that reserves tend to lead the U.S. dollar index by three months. Lower U.S. dollar ahead? Image: Economic Perspectives
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Warnings The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. has rarely weakened sharply ahead of rate cuts, except in 2007. Currently, it doesn’t suggest that a recession is looming. Image: Reuters
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.