S&P 500 and Leading Economic Index (LEI)

S&P 500 and Leading Economic Index (LEI) This chart shows that stimulus has saved the U.S. stock market each time. Saved once again? Picture source: Stifel

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Warnings

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators and Recession Warnings The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. has rarely weakened sharply ahead of rate cuts, except in 2007. Currently, it doesn’t suggest that a recession is looming. Picture source: Reuters

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield This chart shows a good correlation between Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and 10-year Treasury yield. Lower yields ahead? You may also like “For the Last Few Years, Equity Markets Have Been Leading Bond Markets.” Picture source: Yardeni Research, Inc.

Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive

Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Picture source: LPL Financial LLC