Sensitivity of S&P 500 to U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) The 4700 year-end target for the S&P 500 index assumes ERP of 4.8% and U.S. Treasury yield at 1.6%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Risk Premium – 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Government Bond Yield The Equity Risk Premium has increased over the last few months. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Consensus Bottoms Up Earnings Yield – 10-Year Treasury Yield The S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium has increased over the last few months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap U.S. equities remain attractively valued relative to bonds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Real 10-Year Rates Will the S&P 500 equity risk premium rise further? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Valuation – Blended P/E Ratio and Equity Risk Premium Should investors take a cautious approach to U.S. equities as the S&P 500’s P/E ratio remains elevated? Are investors compensated enough for the risk of owning U.S. equities rather than bonds? Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium (Using Breakevens) The S&P 500 equity risk premium remains much lower than it was in March 2020. Is a drawdown on the horizon? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Global Equity Risk Premium The global equity risk premium does not show a high excess equity return over global government bonds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Long-Term Average The S&P 500 equity risk premium is slightly higher than the long-term average of 280 bps, but well below the 436 bps average since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Russell 1000 Equity Risk Premium – Value vs. Growth Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks year-to-date, and remain more attractive than growth stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management