FMS Net % Expecting Stronger Economy vs. S&P 500 FMS investors continue to be less optimistic, expecting a weaker global economy over the next 12 months. The disconnect between the macroeconomic perspective of FMS investors and the performance of U.S. equities is widening. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
When Will the U.S. Economy Go into Recession? The majority of FMS investors do not currently expect a U.S. recession in the next 18 months, while only 8% foresee one in the second half of 2024 and 30% predict a recession in 2025. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Economy A recent Deutsche Bank survey found that 45% of participants predict a “no-landing” scenario for the U.S. economy by the end of 2024. This suggests no recession and inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections Global growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. These projections highlight the resilience of many economies despite various challenges and uncertainties. Image: International Monetary Fund
FMS Investors – Net % Expecting Stronger Economy vs. MSCI ACWI The increased optimism among FMS investors on global growth can be seen as a positive sign, potentially indicating a more favorable outlook. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
What Is the Most Likely Outcome for the Global Economy in the Next 12 Months? FMS investors continue to anticipate a “soft landing” as the most likely global outcome, indicating a gradual and controlled slowdown in the global economy, as opposed to an abrupt or disruptive downturn. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
How FMS Investors Believe the Global Economy Trends Will Be in Next 12 Months Stagflation remains consensus among FMS investors. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Countries by Share of the Global Economy The global economy exceeds $100 trillion for the first time. Image: Visual Capitalist
Net % of FMS Investors Expecting Stronger Economy FMS investors expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months. Are FMS economy expectations too pessimistic? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Probabilities of the U.S. Economy Entering Recession in the Following Periods The probability of a U.S. recession in H1 2023 is rising. Image: Morgan Stanley