Housing Bubble Risk

Housing Bubble Risk Munich is the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble developing, followed by Toronto, Hong Kong and Amsterdam. Picture source: Statista

U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns

U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than…

History of Oil Prices Since 1861

History of Oil Prices Since 1861 This chart is a good illustration of oil price volatility over time. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Repo Market (Outstanding Repos) and Reserve Demand Curve

Repo Market (Outstanding Repos) and Reserve Demand Curve The Fed will expand its balance sheet again, by purchasing Treasury bills at least until mid-2020, which should rebuild the level of reserves in the system to…

China Imports Lead World GDP

China Imports Lead World GDP This chart shows that China imports is a key factor of global growth, and clearly lead world GDP. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Around first rate cut, when growth stocks and large-cap stocks outperform, it does not suggest a recession is coming. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Job Openings and Average Weekly Hours

Job Openings and Average Weekly Hours The number of job openings fell in August, mirroring the decline in average weekly hours, and confirming that the U.S. labor market is cooling. Picture source: TD Bank Financial…

U.S. Economic Data

U.S. Economic Data Chart showing that U.S. economic data revisions have turned negative. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC