ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust

S&P 500 Return vs. NonFarm Payrolls

S&P 500 Return vs. NonFarm Payrolls Since 1988, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 has been much better when nonfarm payrolls have exceeded 100,000. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth

U.S. Consumer Spending and Nonfarm Payroll Growth U.S. consumers may spend less going forward. Slower job growth usually leads to a slowdown in consumer spending. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment During this business cycle, America has added over 20 million jobs. Image: Leonard Kiefer

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Great chart suggesting that overtime hours lead U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 3 months (R = 0.90). Image: Paolo Cardena

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession.  The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…