Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Payrolls Change in U.S. Economic Cycle According to BofA’s forecast, non-farm payrolls are expected to moderate to 200K in March, reflecting a potential slowdown in job growth compared to previous months. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI A reading below 50 on the ISM manufacturing index indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity, potentially affecting payrolls. However, the relationship between the index and actual payrolls is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales Higher payrolls can potentially lead to higher retail sales, as increased income for employees can result in greater purchasing power. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls and JOLTS Job Openings U.S. job openings hit another record high, as hiring struggles persist. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Fed – Timeline for Tapering and Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Should the market be braced for a formal taper announcement in December 2021? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls It could take many years for the U.S. labor market to recover. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment and U3 Unemployment Rate Oxford Economics expects 24 million jobs lost in the U.S. and unemployment rate spiking to 14%. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rate Goldman Sachs expects new lows in the U.S. unemployment rate in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust
S&P 500 Return vs. NonFarm Payrolls Since 1988, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 has been much better when nonfarm payrolls have exceeded 100,000. Image: Pictet Wealth Management