Search Results for: nonfarm payroll

Overtime Hours Lead U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Great chart suggesting that overtime hours lead U.S. nonfarm payrolls by 3 months (R = 0.90). Image: Paolo Cardena

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Overtime Hours and Recessions This chart shows that overtime hours are a leading indicator for where U.S. nonfarm payrolls might be headed, and generally turn negative prior to a recession.

U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession.  The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…

U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives

One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…