U.S. Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Recessions Total nonfarm payrolls increased 224K in June, well above expectations, which should calm fears of a near-term recession. The job market is still strong, even if there are signs it is slowing down. Actually, nonfarm payroll growth tends to decline before a recession. You may also like “What Is…
U.S. Payrolls and Recessions U.S. payroll growth rarely dips this low without a recession. It slowed sharply in late 2025, but analysts expect a rebound this year as productivity gains, Fed rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus lift GDP growth. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. NonFarm Employment Annual Growth The YOY job growth rate of 1.1% is a warning sign, as similar levels have coincided with periods just before or during recessions since 1950, supporting the case for the Fed to consider easing monetary policy soon. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S.…
S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish means consistently betting against a three-in-four odds of positive return. Image: Real Investment Advice