One of the Best Indicators to Monitor for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming

The probability of being unemployed in a given month in the United States, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, is one of the best indicators to monitor for signs a U.S. recession is coming.

If history helps us to predict the future, when the probability of being unemployed marks a low point, a U.S. recession is coming.

That’s not the case today and that’s good news.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims to All Employees Total Nonfarm Payrolls