U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation

U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target

U.S. Core PCE vs. Fed Target The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rises to 1.6% in June. Inflation trending back up toward the Fed’s 2% target is good news. You may also like “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.”

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending

Fed Rate Cuts Boost Consumer Spending The chart shows real PCE around first Fed rate cut: recession vs. no recession. Fed rate cuts are more effective during a recession. Image: Ned Davis Research