Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a bullish but choppy 2026. U.S. stocks are now heading into their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August to early October. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Cycle Composite The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a less bullish period of the year, with 2025 so far following typical seasonal patterns: early strength, mid-year volatility, and a potential year-end rally. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles When the Fed turns to hiking, the S&P 500 often takes a breather, slipping modestly over the next few weeks and months before the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Issuance Upcycles Past issuance waves tell a familiar story: they usually line up with strong U.S. equity performance, underpinned by steady buying interest. That pattern is tough to ignore in a rising market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years have a reputation for shaky markets. History tells a different story in second presidential terms, with U.S. stocks averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Those midterm jitters tend to fade quicker than investors expect. Image: Carson Investment Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher,…
S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500 is following the familiar midterm‑year script, with gains often building into mid‑April before the market starts to lose momentum as the election comes into view. That midterm effect shows up almost every cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck with, and election season always adds more to the mix. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research