Search Results for: S&P 500 cycle

S&P 500 Cycle Composite Based on the S&P 500 Cycle Composite forecast, an uptrend is expected to start around this time and continue through the first week of March 2025. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle Although the S&P 500 is facing increased volatility in this post-election year, its performance still aligns with typical patterns observed in the four-year presidential cycle. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle U.S. stocks often experience weakness in Q1 of a post-election year, reflecting uncertainty tied to new policies and economic adjustments. However, the second quarter typically shows stronger performance, offering hope for recovery. Image: Carson Investment Research

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 While the market may face some choppiness in the near term, the Carson Cycle Composite’s prediction of a strong 2025 for U.S. stocks gives bulls reason for confidence. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls have reason to be cheerful as post-election years tend to bring solid market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 18% during these years, with positive results in nine out of ten cases. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research

EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle While election results can impact markets in the short term, the underlying profitability of companies is a stronger driver of stock prices over time. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research