Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research
U.S. Election – Presidential Cycle and Average S&P 500 Return since 1872 Since 1872, the S&P500 index has averaged 6.2% during an election year, and 9.6% on average if a Republican wins. Image: Jefferies
S&P 500 under Trump vs. the Average Presidential Cycle The S&P 500 under President Donald Trump stacks up well against the average presidential cycle. Image: CNBC
S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles Chart suggesting that market participants have started to take into account the start of a fourth mini-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 – The 1994-1998-2011 Mini-Bear Analog The “mid-cycle adjustment” analog works very well so far and suggests where the S&P 500 could go next. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts This chart shows what the U.S. market has done after first Fed cut in a business cycle. The current path follows precautionary rate cuts and does not suggest an imminent recession in the U.S.. Image: UBS