Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). Keep in mind that this is not a forecast. Picture source: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Picture source: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Picture source: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Picture source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Picture source: Irrelevant Investor LLC
U.S. Nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 Volatility This chart shows that the S&P 500 volatility remains high in a context of slower macroeconomic cycles. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Short Interest This chart shows that S&P 500 short interest rebounded from cycle lows (as of July 31, 2019). Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First-Rate Cut After the first-rate cut, the S&P 500’s performance is much better in mid-cycle than in late-cycle. Picture source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 and Recession Probability Great chart showing twelve Fed easing cycles since the 1950s, including the recession probability and the average return of the S&P 500 Index. Picture source: Fidelity Investments
