S&P 500 Cycle Composite

S&P 500 Cycle Composite Should U.S. equity investors remain optimistic about the S&P 500 in 2023, despite many headwinds? Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 The Carson cycle composite provides valuable insights for investors and traders, suggesting that the S&P 500 index historically tends to exhibit a period of weakness around now, which often extends into March. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle The Presidential Cycle Year 4 pattern suggests that investors should be prepared for a period of sluggish performance for the S&P 500 before a possible rally during the summer months. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle The first quarter of an election year often exhibits a sluggish performance for the S&P 500 index, but as the year progresses, the market tends to regain strength, ultimately delivering a solid performance. Image: Carson Investment Research

Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year

Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research