Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research
Average Performance by S&P 500 Quality Ranks when the Profits Cycle Decelerated Historically, high quality stocks (A+) have outperformed when the profits cycle decelerates, as investors tend to pay up for stable earnings growth. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 Historically, election year shines in June-August, as it is the strongest 3-month period of presidential cycle year 4 (up 74% of the time with an average return of 6.93%). Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, during a presidential election year, each quarter has seen a positive return on average. Image: LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Election – Presidential Cycle and Average S&P 500 Return since 1872 Since 1872, the S&P500 index has averaged 6.2% during an election year, and 9.6% on average if a Republican wins. Image: Jefferies
S&P 500 under Trump vs. the Average Presidential Cycle The S&P 500 under President Donald Trump stacks up well against the average presidential cycle. Image: CNBC
S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles Chart suggesting that market participants have started to take into account the start of a fourth mini-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research