S&P 500 Cycle Composite

S&P 500 Cycle Composite Should U.S. equity investors remain optimistic about the S&P 500 in 2023, despite many headwinds? Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4

S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 While seasonality should not be regarded as a crystal ball, it can serve as a valuable tool for assessing probabilities in the stock market. Historical data shows that U.S. stocks often exhibit strength in July during election years. Image: BofA Global…

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Considering the substantial cyclical correction in 2022, the current presidential cycle suggests that there is potential for the S&P 500 to perform well in 2024. Image: BofA Global Research

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 The Carson cycle composite provides valuable insights for investors and traders, suggesting that the S&P 500 index historically tends to exhibit a period of weakness around now, which often extends into March. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank