Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles

S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles Chart suggesting that market participants have started to take into account the start of a fourth mini-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles

S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles

S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 – The 1994-1998-2011 Mini-Bear Analog

S&P 500 – The 1994-1998-2011 Mini-Bear Analog The “mid-cycle adjustment” analog works very well so far and suggests where the S&P 500 could go next. Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts

S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts This chart shows what the U.S. market has done after first Fed cut in a business cycle. The current path follows precautionary rate cuts and does not suggest an imminent recession in the U.S.. Image: UBS