S&P 500 Cycle Composite

S&P 500 Cycle Composite The S&P 500 Cycle Composite forecasts a robust performance in the first half of 2025, followed by a pullback in the third quarter, and concludes with a year-end rally. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research

S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls have reason to be cheerful as post-election years tend to bring solid market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 18% during these years, with positive results in nine out of ten cases. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle The U.S. stock market typically outperforms in the first two years of a President’s second term compared to a new President’s term, suggesting a potentially strong year for stocks and giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle

S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle The first quarter of the first year in a presidential cycle often exhibits a sluggish performance for the S&P 500. As the year progresses, however, there is a tendency for the market to regain strength, ultimately delivering a solid performance. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle The S&P 500’s four-year cycle suggests a positive first half of 2025 followed by a more challenging second half, as post-election years often see more restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. Image: Ned Davis Research

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500

Cycle Composite for the S&P 500 Based on historical market behavior, the Carson Cycle Composite offers valuable insights into market trends and suggests a forthcoming period of strength for the S&P 500. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4

S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research

EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle

EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle While election results can impact markets in the short term, the underlying profitability of companies is a stronger driver of stock prices over time. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4

S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research