Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2019 This great chart shows the S&P 500 cycle composite for 2019 vs. the actual S&P 500 composite (places equal weight on: one-year seasonal cycle, four-year presidential cycle, and 10-year decennial cycle). This is not a forecast. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 and Mini-Cycles Chart suggesting that market participants have started to take into account the start of a fourth mini-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Rates and Secular Cycles Chart suggesting that the secular bull market of the 1920’s is probably the best example of the current cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Performance by Presidential Cycle Chart showing the breakdown of the S&P 500 quarterly performance by presidential cycle since 1950. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 and Past Easing Cycles The S&P 500 did rather well after easing cycles began, especially during Fed insurance cuts. You may also like “Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts.” Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Index: Recession Rate Cuts vs. Precautionary Rate Cuts This chart shows what the U.S. market has done after first Fed cut in a business cycle. The current path follows precautionary rate cuts and does not suggest an imminent recession in the U.S.. Image: UBS
Average S&P 500 Performance Following 3rd Fed Rate Cut In the Fed rate cutting cycle, the chart shows the average S&P 500 performance following a 3rd Fed rate cut, with less than two additional cuts, and two or more additional cuts. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Total Return Change During Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. The next downturn could hit the U.S. stock market much harder than the economy. Image: Irrelevant Investor LLC