Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates, not their level, that has driven equity returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks, as investors push for greater compensation to stay exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a clear sign of normalization in bond markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield Sure, U.S. equities are expensive, but inflation and debt worries make bonds no easy refuge either. The smart move now? Stay selective, not scared. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500, U.S. 10-Year Yield and U.S. Dollar Index Peaks in the U.S. dollar and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are seen as essential to catalyze a year-end rally in the S&P 500. Image: BofA Global Research
10-Year Yield: U.S. vs. G10 excluding U.S. Should investors expect global bond yields to fall? Image: Alpine Macro
Eurozone – 10-Year Yields by Country One currency in the eurozone, but so many different interest rates. Can the eurozone survive in the long term? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Yields and Peak in U.S. 2-Year Yields Will U.S. Treasury yields peak once the Fed finishes tightening? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Equity Flows Minus Bond Flows and U.S. 10-Year Yield Will the rotation in fund flows from bonds to equities continue? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index Returns Under a Higher 10-Year Yield Historically, higher rates tend to be bullish for the S&P 500. Image: LPL Research