U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.65%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators With volatility easing, market sentiment is back to neutral, a long way from euphoria and leaving room for further upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is sitting close to neutral at 0.3. Past episodes at similar levels have generally been followed by a 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Potential Indicators of Exuberance Relative to History AI bubble worries are creeping back into the narrative. Investors are more bullish than usual, but sentiment points to late-cycle exuberance rather than a full-blown bubble. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator The decline in G10 excess liquidity into negative territory signals a tougher road ahead for U.S. stocks over the next six months. When liquidity dries up, equities tend to feel the strain. Image: Bloomberg
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has softened slightly, but still sits near stretched territory. Historically, such high levels can persist without immediately turning bearish. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and other key components. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in April to 398K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker long-term returns and a thinner margin of safety Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard