Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators confirm a prevailing risk-on attitude, with investors showing greater confidence and willingness to invest in higher-risk assets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning A reading of 0.0 on the Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator indicates neutral sentiment, which—based on historical patterns—is often followed by positive S&P 500 returns in the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator – Investor Equity Positions Hedge funds are currently more bullish on the market compared to other investor categories, which remain cautious and have not significantly increased their market participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in May to 450K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS risk appetite indicator’s current risk-on signal suggests a constructive market environment, with investors willing to take on risk in anticipation of sustained positive returns and economic stability. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator – Equity Positioning A reading of -1.3 on the Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator signals cautious investor positioning, which has historically preceded gains in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are cautiously optimistic, but not exuberant or fearful. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – The Buffett Indicator Although the Buffett Indicator has fallen from record highs, making U.S. stocks appear more attractive, it still sits well above its historical average and past market lows. Image: Bloomberg