U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell — and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.53%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS Risk Appetite Indicator shows investors taking risk with conviction, betting on steady returns and a resilient economy—but fading momentum suggests the easy gains may be behind them. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite shows no sign of fading, buoyed by resilient optimism, a friendly Fed backdrop, and earnings that consistently top expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At -0.4, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is flashing mild caution — a level that, more often than not, has preceded an S&P 500 bounce in the coming month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with past setups since 2015 delivering roughly 4% on average. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard
Speculative Trading Indicator 3-Month Changes While the U.S. stock market may continue rallying in the near term due to strong earnings and positive trade developments, the heightened speculative activity raises the risk of a notable pullback in the foreseeable future. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a highly speculative market environment right now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research