U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators By destabilizing markets and amplifying recession fears, Trump’s tariffs injected systemic risks into global trade, leading to dramatic shifts in investor sentiment and heightened market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator currently stands at -1.7, signaling a potential contrarian buying opportunity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS risk appetite indicator has fallen sharply into negative territory, signaling a cautious stance among investors. That said, it has stayed above extreme levels and has shown signs of recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator – Equity Positioning The U.S. equity sentiment indicator has declined to -1.2; however, such sharp drops in sentiment often signal the potential for above-average S&P 500 earnings in the next three months, suggesting potential for a contrarian rebound. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators While sentiment and positioning were highly bullish at the end of 2024, recent setbacks have emerged. The resurgence of “Trumponomics” has increased volatility, prompting investors to adopt more defensive strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Sentiment Indicator Morgan Stanley’s market sentiment indicator has recently turned positive, signaling a shift towards a risk-on appetite after maintaining a neutral stance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank