Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and 10-Year Spread (Leading Indicator) The 10-year spread (Euro vs. U.S. dollar swap rates) tends to lead EUR/USD by 22 days. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal suggests that the U.S. stock…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Most market sentiment indicators remain risk-on. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator – Equity Positioning The GS equity sentiment indicator remains stretched at 1.4 standard deviation above the mean. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a mid-cycle shift this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning The GS sentiment indicator remains stretched. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global PMI and Risk Appetite Indicator When global PMIs are above 50 and rising, risk appetite has been mostly positive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP and Stock-to-Bond Ratio (Leading Indicator) The stock-to-bond ratio tends to lead U.S. real GDP by 5 months. Image: Alpine Macro
ISM YoY and U.S. 2+10-Year Bond Yield YoY (Leading Indicator) The U.S. 2+10-year bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the ISM YoY by 18 months, suggesting that the growth momentum is expected to continue until August 2021. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar and Twin Deficits as % of GDP (Leading Indicator) Historically, the twin deficits tend to lead the U.S. dollar by two years. Image: Deutsche Bank