U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning With the GS sentiment indicator no longer at extreme levels, investor sentiment appears more balanced, which could lead to more sustainable market trends and reduced volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators are signaling a risk-on attitude among investors, highlighting their increasing willingness to embrace riskier assets in today’s economic landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate The recent dip in the Sahm Rule indicator below the 0.5 mark is encouraging, as it indicates that a U.S. recession is no longer likely. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market Sentiment Indicator Morgan Stanley’s current market sentiment indicator reflects a risk-neutral outlook. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The copper/gold ratio and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are showing signs of a persistent divergence. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment indicators are so bullish right now, even bears are updating their X profiles to “Bull Market Enthusiast.” Image: Bloomberg
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The Risk Appetite Indicator is currently signaling a strong preference for higher-risk investments, reflecting a positive market outlook and a risk-on environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator With the year-end approaching, sentiment is overly stretched, implying that market participants might be excessively optimistic and overconfident in their bullish outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research