Search Results for: indicator

S&P 500 Positioning Indicator With U.S. equity positioning largely neutral, there’s room for investors to lean back into risk. Market conditions remain supportive for risk-on moves. Image: TS Lombard

U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Index and Barclays Equity Timing Indicator Barclays’ Equity Timing Indicator—a gauge of 19 market and economic signals—is tilting bullish, implying an 82% chance the S&P 500 rises over the next two months, with past setups since 2015 delivering roughly 4% on average. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook in the near term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank

Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are moderately optimistic, cautiously taking on risk without exuberance. Image: TS Lombard

Speculative Trading Indicator 3-Month Changes While the U.S. stock market may continue rallying in the near term due to strong earnings and positive trade developments, the heightened speculative activity raises the risk of a notable pullback in the foreseeable future. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a highly speculative market environment right now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research