Risk Appetite Indicator for Different Asset Classes Investors have sharply shifted toward risk aversion due to escalating tariff policies and eroding market visibility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators While sentiment and positioning were highly bullish at the end of 2024, recent setbacks have emerged. The resurgence of “Trumponomics” has increased volatility, prompting investors to adopt more defensive strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Sentiment Indicator Morgan Stanley’s market sentiment indicator has recently turned positive, signaling a shift towards a risk-on appetite after maintaining a neutral stance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The copper/gold ratio and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are showing signs of a persistent divergence. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator With the year-end approaching, sentiment is overly stretched, implying that market participants might be excessively optimistic and overconfident in their bullish outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sell Side Consensus Indicator The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, has remained unchanged in September. The current level suggests that the S&P 500 may see positive gains over the next 12 months. Image: BofA US Equity and Quant Strategy
Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors anticipate increased volatility ahead, given that the yield curve typically leads the VIX by three years? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Going into a Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Trigger Event The recent triggering of the Sahm Rule indicator has diverged from the typical behavior of U.S. equities seen in the lead-up to a recession. Investors should be cautious before drawing conclusions about a potential U.S. recession. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics