U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales at 1.23% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Headline Retail Sales

U.S. Headline Retail Sales U.S. retail sales look V-shaped, but can it last? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Retail Sales in March-April 2020

U.S. Retail Sales in March-April 2020 U.S. retail sales from March to April is dramatic and tumbled by a record 16.4%. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Nonstore Retail Sales

U.S. Nonstore Retail Sales This chart puts into perspective U.S. nonstore retail sales, which are a proxy measure for ecommerce performance. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…