U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales at 3.5% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Ecommerce as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales in the U.S. U.S. retail e-commerce sales now account for 11 percent of total sales. Image: Financial Times
Global Employment and Global Real Retail Sales Chart suggesting that the slowdown in global employment is expected to impact global real retail sales. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
U.S. Total Retail Sales Volumes Chart showing that U.S. retail sales remain solid. Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Image: Credit Suisse
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…