Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence Consumer confidence has remained relatively strong, but may weaken later this year due to the decline in business confidence. Picture source: Wells Fargo Investment Institute

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence

U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims

Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Picture source:…

U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

U.S. Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Currently, the consumer is doing well, keeping the U.S. economy from tanking, and consumer sentiment is high. Picture source: Credit Suisse

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months?

Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Picture…