U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The U.S. ISM manufacturing index reading below 50 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, which may impact payroll numbers. However, the relationship between the index and actual payroll figures is not straightforward. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM New Orders – Inventories The spread between U.S. ISM New Orders and Inventories suggests a positive upward trend in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with new orders increasing at a more rapid pace than inventories. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Percentage of Countries with Manufacturing PMI Above 50 While the global manufacturing sector faced headwinds in mid-2023, the latest data suggest a gradual recovery is underway, with the percentage of countries in expansion nearly doubling from September 2023 to the present. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
ISM Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Recessions A drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI below 45 signals significantly heightened recession risks, indicating a severe contraction in the manufacturing sector. Image: BofA Global Research
Global Composite PMI and EPS Growth The Global Composite PMI serves as a leading indicator for EPS growth, with its trends providing insights into future corporate earnings performance. Image: J.P. Morgan
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Global Stocks vs. Government Bonds In a potential shift from a “no” to a “hard” landing scenario, government bonds may outperform due to increased risk aversion, interest rate cuts, lower inflation expectations, and their historical performance during economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global Manufacturing PMI The global manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion territory, indicating a positive trend in global manufacturing activity. This is a welcome sign for the global economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Prices Index vs. U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices (Leading Indicator) U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices tend to lead U.S. CPI by 6 months, reflecting the impact of changes in input prices on consumer prices over time. Image: Charles Schwab