Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures

Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures Chart showing the current divergence between gold and the implied Fed funds rate. Image: Longview Economics

Leverage in the U.S.: Households and Corporations

Leverage in the U.S.: Households and Corporations This chart shows the divergence between U.S. non-financial corporations leverage and households leverage. U.S. corporation debt reached a record level of $10.12tn. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve

U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Corporate CCC-Rated Bonds Diverge During Trade War

U.S. Corporate CCC-Rated Bonds Diverge During Trade War As the chart suggests, CCC-rated bonds are not the canary in the coal mine. The divergence in option-adjusted spreads between CCCs and higher-rated issues reflects the impact of the US-China trade war. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS

U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS The current divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” (recession) or “up” (reflation). Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI

U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart showing the large divergence between U.S. cyclicals/defensives and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Eventually, the gap should close soon. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. High Yield Bond Spread

S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. High Bond Yield Spread Chart showing the current divergence between U.S. equities and high yield bond spreads, while they are generally correlated. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Value Stocks vs. Low Volatility Stocks

Value Stocks vs. Low Volatility Stocks Chart showing the large divergence between value stocks and low volatility stocks, like never before. Image: J.P. Morgan