Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE When MOVE is below the 50th percentile and VIX is above the 80th percentile, the average annualized S&P 500 price performance has been close to +21% compared to just over +7% the rest of the time. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Stocks and U.S. Bonds: Returns Following Fund Flow Divergence In 2019, bond fund flows outpaced stock fund flows. The difference is the largest ever recorded ($588bn). Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Divergence Between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and the U.S. Dollar Trump wants a weaker US dollar, but could the dollar weaken in the coming months? Image: Legg Mason
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit This chart shows the unprecedented divergence between the U.S. unemployment rate and the U.S. federal government budget deficit. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 vs. Corporate Profits After Tax The current divergence between the S&P 500 and corporate profits after tax is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” with a recession. Image: Real Investment Advice
Global Political Uncertainty Index vs. VIX This chart shows the wide divergence between the Global Political Uncertainty Index and VIX since 2015. More volatility ahead? Image: Legg Mason
U.S. Economy vs. Asset Prices Persistent low interest rates could explain the wide divergence between real economy prices and asset prices, over the past decade. Image: Charles Schwab
Gold vs. Fed Funds Futures Chart showing the current divergence between gold and the implied Fed funds rate. Image: Longview Economics
Leverage in the U.S.: Households and Corporations This chart shows the divergence between U.S. non-financial corporations leverage and households leverage. U.S. corporation debt reached a record level of $10.12tn. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Corporate Profits and 10Y-3M Yield Curve While the divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record, the steepening yield curve suggests an earnings rebound. Image: BofA Global Research