Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Volatility Divergence – VIX and MOVE The volatility divergence between VIX and MOVE remains elevated. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
China GDP – Longer-Term Growth Divergence Between China and the Rest of the World The divergence between China and the rest of the world is expecting to increase over time. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Stocks and U.S. Bonds: Returns Following Fund Flow Divergence In 2019, bond fund flows outpaced stock fund flows. The difference is the largest ever recorded ($588bn). Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Divergence Between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and the U.S. Dollar Trump wants a weaker US dollar, but could the dollar weaken in the coming months? Image: Legg Mason
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Despite the U.S. stock market’s impressive resilience against various challenges, the divergence between current valuations and historical averages presents substantial risks to its long-term sustainability. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls Growth in the Month That the Fed Starts Easing Policy The recent rise in payroll numbers is surprising given the Fed’s easing of interest rates. Usually, strong job growth coincides with tighter monetary policy, but the current situation reveals a notable divergence. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average is showing signs of a bearish divergence, which can be an early warning signal of a potential market correction. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and the Percentage of Stocks Above 10-Day MAs The rise in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 10-day moving averages can be interpreted as a tactical bullish divergence, providing valuable insights into market strength and the potential for a reversal. Image: BofA Global Research