Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle?

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. See also “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“

Stages of the Business Cycle as of April 30, 2019

Stages of the Business Cycle as of April 30, 2019 Although global growth remains positive, this chart shows that most major economies are entering the late business cycle phase. Picture source: Fidelity Investments

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared to Previous Business Cycles?

Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…