U.S. Business Cycle: Output Gap vs. Core PCE Inflation The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 24 months ago. The mature phase lasted 72 months in the late 1960s and 57 months in the late 1990s. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
U.S. Business Cycle: Private Non-farm Employment, Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation This chart highlights the decline in corporate profits and rising wages, one characteristic of the late stage of the business cycle. Image: Fidelity Investments
Business Cycle – U.S. Output Gap and Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that the US economy has slipped into the late stage of the business cycle. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Fed Rate Cuts and Business Cycle Similar Fed rate cuts in the 1990s should be enough to prolong the business cycle, and should be positive for stocks. Image: LPL Financial LLC
Historical Asset Performance At Turning Points in the Business Cycle Equity volatility is expected to increase over the next 12 months, as recession fears increase. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Stages of the Business Cycle as of August 31, 2019 This chart suggests that most major economies are in the late phase of the business cycle. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and Fed Insurance Cut vs. Fed Recession Cut In recent history, when the U.S. long-term business cycle peaks in the 90th percentile and the Fed cut rates, a recession occurred. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Market/Business Cycle Historical Percentile Comparison: Today vs. 1998 & 2016 This great chart suggests that the current U.S. business cycle is in a typical late-cycle phase. Image: Pictet Asset Management
