U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.70%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without one, the 12‑month forward return has averaged 16.4%. Fear, in this case, has been a poor strategist. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare, giving bulls a reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What once echoed the market now sets the tempo. The top 10 names in the S&P 500 account for 39% of the index and 38% of its earnings, pushing up multiples and amplifying day-to-day swings. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings, versus 20 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index isn’t cheap, but it looks more appealing than the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is signaling overbought conditions in the S&P 500. For investors, that may be a good moment to trim positions and rebalance portfolios. Image: MarketDesk Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is repeating the same refrain: corporate profits are still resilient. 64% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while only 8% have missed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns Most years, the S&P 500 gives up 5% to 10%. With March’s double-digit drop already in the books, the next move lower may be more modest. Back-to-back big drawdowns don’t happen often. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a bullish but choppy 2026. U.S. stocks are now heading into their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August to early October. Image: Ned Davis Research
New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year The S&P 500 has reached 25 record highs this year. In robust bull markets, new highs usually come in clusters and last longer than the crowd expects, as long as earnings and growth stay on track. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still screens cheap versus other sectors, while Industrials and Consumer Staples already look priced for plenty of good news. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research