History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). See also “Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth.” Picture source: Economic Policy Institute
Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth This chart shows that U.S. home prices are rising faster than wages. There is clearly a widening gap between wage growth and house price. Today, houses are too expensive for most young people.
Since 1990, No Recessions Without 4% Wage Growth Since the beginning of the Great Recession, wage growth has been slow in this business cycle. But keep in mind that since 1990, no recessions without 4% wage growth. So, a recession is probably not imminent. Picture source: Blackrock
When Is the Next Recession Coming? If history helps us to predict the future, a recession can occur when: Wage Growth minus Fed Funds Rate is below -1%. Why? Because the Fed is too tight at that moment. Since 1965, a recession has never occurred until Wage Growth minus Fed Funds Rate was below -1%…
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…
