Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years may bring thinner returns. These are exceptional businesses, but price matters. Even the strongest names can disappoint if you pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio Shiller CAPE puts U.S. stocks back in the stratosphere, great on the way up, unforgiving on the way down. From these levels, history argues for lower returns and higher risk. Not a great starting point if you care about future returns. Image: Topdown Charts
Insider Transactions Ratio With buying and selling now balanced, the Insider Transactions Ratio has slipped back into neutral. Insiders look to be in wait-and-see mode. Image: Barron’s
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The market used to be a mirror. Now it acts more like a megaphone. Ten mega-caps account for 40% of the S&P 500, stretching valuations and amplifying volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks still command a premium over the broader market, fueled by strong growth prospects, though that gap looks unlikely to close unless a recession shakes investor confidence. Image: Topdown Charts
Valuation – PEG Ratio Between the U.S. and the Rest of the World The valuation premium of U.S. equities versus the rest of the world, through the PEG lens, has narrowed in recent months. But U.S. growth expectations still justify some of that premium. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
PEG Ratio between Technology and Global Aggregate Market The tech sector’s slump is beginning to uncover compelling opportunities, with valuations now lagging behind the global aggregate market despite solid growth expectations. Times like these often reveal the best long-term plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Model-Predicted P/E Ratio U.S. equities look expensive relative to both their own history and what today’s macro backdrop would normally justify. In past cycles, such stretches of pricey valuations have often been followed by years of subpar returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold to S&P 500 Ratio Gold’s outperformance has pushed the Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio to its highest since 2013, signaling a defensive shift but not yet the kind of rush to safety seen during crisis years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Mega-Cap Tech PEG Ratio Despite relying on forward growth estimates that often move, the Mega-Cap Tech PEG ratio (P/E to CY3 EPS growth) has fallen sharply, echoing the lows of 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Silver to Oil Ratio Silver’s rally has gone so far that an ounce can now buy a barrel of oil. It’s a rare moment that may not last if crude recovers or silver takes a breather after parabolic gains. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond