U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Data Surprises – Inflation and Growth Is stagflation a real threat in the United States? Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation Surprises Relative to Overall Data Surprises Is stagflation the greatest risk for investors? Image: BofA Global Research
Closing S&P 500 and VIX on Each Data When S&P 500 Hit a New All-Time High New all-time highs for the S&P 500 with the VIX above 20 have only happened in the coronavirus and dot-com periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Economic Data China is leading the global economic recovery and is expected to provide a boost to the rest of the world. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Global Growth and Macro Data Macro data are turning sharply positive. Is the recovery faster than expected? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Equity Bear Market End (Data Since 1983) The rally since March low has been the strongest equity recovery since 1983. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan
Recession History – Average Trajectory of Earnings Data The market tends to bottom well in advance (15 months on average) before earnings recover. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Survey Data and EPS Growth BofA’s model suggests 11.4% U.S. EPS growth by the end of Q2 2020. Image: BofA Global Research