U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data Economists call it a “soft recession” when factories slow but services keep humming. That resilience on the services side is what kept the U.S. out of a recession. But if services begin to crack, things could shift quickly. Image: Real Investment Advice
Data Centre Electricity Consumption by Country (Forecast to 2030) Data center electricity use may triple by 2030 due to AI growth, straining energy infrastructure, challenging capacity, sustainability, and reliable power supply across global grids. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Data Surprises – Inflation and Growth Is stagflation a real threat in the United States? Image: Deutsche Bank
Closing S&P 500 and VIX on Each Data When S&P 500 Hit a New All-Time High New all-time highs for the S&P 500 with the VIX above 20 have only happened in the coronavirus and dot-com periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Economic Data China is leading the global economic recovery and is expected to provide a boost to the rest of the world. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Global Growth and Macro Data Macro data are turning sharply positive. Is the recovery faster than expected? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Equity Bear Market End (Data Since 1983) The rally since March low has been the strongest equity recovery since 1983. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan
Recession History – Average Trajectory of Earnings Data The market tends to bottom well in advance (15 months on average) before earnings recover. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Survey Data and EPS Growth BofA’s model suggests 11.4% U.S. EPS growth by the end of Q2 2020. Image: BofA Global Research