Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Services Survey Data A “soft recession” occurs when the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracts while services remain robust, leading to a period of slower economic activity. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Data Surprises – Inflation and Growth Is stagflation a real threat in the United States? Image: Deutsche Bank
Closing S&P 500 and VIX on Each Data When S&P 500 Hit a New All-Time High New all-time highs for the S&P 500 with the VIX above 20 have only happened in the coronavirus and dot-com periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Economic Data China is leading the global economic recovery and is expected to provide a boost to the rest of the world. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Global Growth and Macro Data Macro data are turning sharply positive. Is the recovery faster than expected? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Around Equity Bear Market End (Data Since 1983) The rally since March low has been the strongest equity recovery since 1983. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan
Recession History – Average Trajectory of Earnings Data The market tends to bottom well in advance (15 months on average) before earnings recover. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Survey Data and EPS Growth BofA’s model suggests 11.4% U.S. EPS growth by the end of Q2 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
Big-Data Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle and NBER Recession Chart showing that the short-sample indicator improved and moved into the “Boom” regime last November. Image: BofA Global Research