U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data?

Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data? Nancy Tengler, Butcher Joseph Chief Investment Strategist, and Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer senior investment strategist, discuss the economic data. They are mixed, but that’s good news. Equities are going higher and investors should have FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of September 13, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.28%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“ Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar History tells us that the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 could go higher, and the yield curve could stay inverted until mid-2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Picture to Enlarge

Percentage of Stocks That Beat the S&P 500 by Year

Percentage of Stocks That Beat the S&P 500 by Year This chart shows that the percentage of U.S. stocks that beat the S&P 500 in a given year is not small, but stock picking is not an easy task. Picture source: Of Dollars And Data

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage Despite the trade war, hedge fund leverage remains high, compared to the average level of the last five years (aggregated data from Goldman Sachs Prime Services, as of August 19, 2019; should not be relied upon as a comprehensive view of the market). Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Picture to Enlarge

Negative Yielding Bonds in the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate Index

Negative Yielding Bonds in the Bloomberg/Barclays Aggregate Index This chart puts things into perspective. As a reminder, keep in mind that bondholders will get back less than what they paid if they hold bonds to maturity. Picture source: Bianco Research Click the Picture to Enlarge