U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data

U.S. Hard Data vs. Soft Data U.S. hard data is improving, but the chart shows the current divergence between U.S. hard data and soft data. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data?

Should Investors Trust Markets or Economic Data? Nancy Tengler, Butcher Joseph Chief Investment Strategist, and Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer senior investment strategist, discuss the economic data. They are mixed, but that’s good news. Equities are going higher and investors should have FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of July 19, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2020 imply an expected rate of only 1.69%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months This chart shows the U.S. core inflation expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core inflation by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996).  See also “Where Does Inflation Come From?” and “How to…

World Population in 2018

World Population in 2018 Interesting world map: the country’s size represents the size of the population. See also “World Population & Demographics – More People Over 65 than Under 5 for the First Time.” Picture source: Our World in Data Click the Picture to Enlarge