S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is still in negative territory, and that’s bad news for U.S. stocks over the next three to six months. As the liquidity backdrop fades, equities lose a crucial support. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in July to 437K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity of the market’s response to incoming data and policy signals. Image: Deutsche Bank
CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and other key components. Image: Deutsche Bank
After Narrow Market Leadership: Drawdowns in the Leading Sector Across decades, concentrated leadership has signaled fragile market health: when only a few sectors drive gains, weakening breadth tends to precede sharp declines. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with a lag, showing up in valuations roughly a year down the road. Image: Bloomberg
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government bonds. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research