Global Composite PMI Leads Global GDP

Global Composite PMI Leads Global GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the global composite PMI leads global GDP growth by 2 months. Picture source: Oxford Economics

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“ Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This great chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate Leads S&P 500 Future

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate Leads S&P 500 Future Chart suggesting that the U.S. 10-year real rate leads the S&P 500 future by 22 days. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond