The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years

The Yield Curve Leads Volatility by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? Yes, most likely. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. See also “VIX is in a Transitory State.” Picture source: ClearBridge Investments

ANZ Global Lead Index

ANZ Global Lead Index The ANZ Global Lead Index is a leading indicator on global industrial production. The chart shows that growth momentum peaked in 2018. Currently, global growth is actually starting to moderate seriously. Picture source: ANZ Research

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months

Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Picture source: Legg Mason

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This excellent chart shows that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It suggests that PMI could be below 50 in 3Q19, but above 60 in 2020. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC