U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity (Leading Indicator) G10 excess liquidity, the gap between real money growth and economic growth, is climbing again as it returns to post‑pandemic highs and gives U.S. stocks fresh support. Image: Bloomberg
Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with a lag, showing up in valuations roughly a year down the road. Image: Bloomberg
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government bonds. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The copper/gold ratio and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are showing signs of a persistent divergence. Image: Morgan Stanley Research