U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI dips in October to 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the…

U.S. Equity Leads U.S. Dollar

U.S. Equity Leads U.S. Dollar History suggests that U.S. equity underperformance leads U.S. dollar weakness. Image: Gavekal

U.S. Stock-to-Bond Ratio Leads U.S. Real GDP

U.S. Stock-to-Bond Ratio Leads U.S. Real GDP Chart suggesting that the U.S. stock-to-bond ratio leads U.S. real GDP by 6 months, which could indicate higher GDP growth. Image: Alpine Macro

Central Banks Actions Lead Emerging Markets Manufacturing Surveys

Central Banks Actions Lead Emerging Markets Manufacturing Surveys Chart suggesting that central banks actions lead emerging markets manufacturing surveys by 8 months. The net number of EM central banks cutting rates has reached 50% of 30 central banks. Image: Pictet Asset Management

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession

Philly Fed Leading Index and Recession The Philly Fed Leading Index for the United States suggests that the U.S. economy is still in expansion mode over the next 6 months. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia