The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The U.S. LEI decreased by 0.3% in February, suggesting a recession for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. Image: The Conference Board
M2 Annual % ROC (Advanced 12-Months) vs. GAAP Earnings (Leading Indicator) The significant decline in M2 growth puts GAAP earnings at risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank
Relative Performance of Prior Bull Market Leader vs. The Next Bull Market Leader Should investors continue to overweight the energy sector over the tech sector? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Index of Leading Indicators vs. Industrial Production A further deterioration in U.S. industrial production seems very likely. Image: Merrill Lynch Wealth Management
Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI The current reading of the U.S. LEI could result in lower ISM in the next few months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
China Credit Impulse and Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) – Leading Indicator Will EUR/USD peak in mid-2023? Image: Steno Research
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Philly Fed Futures Orders (Leading Indicator) Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI fall further, as a recession is looming in the United States? Image: Topdown Charts