The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In March, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.7%, pointing to slowing economic activity ahead, but not suggesting an imminent recession. Image: The Conference Board

Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator)

Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg

Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator)

Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors anticipate increased volatility ahead, given that the yield curve typically leads the VIX by three years? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy