U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales rose in December to 392K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
OECD G20 Composite Leading Indicator The OECD’s global leading indicator is running above trend and gaining momentum, signaling a pickup in the global growth cycle that has historically coincided with stronger risk-asset performance over government bonds. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Copper to Gold Ratio and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The copper/gold ratio and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are showing signs of a persistent divergence. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg
Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors anticipate increased volatility ahead, given that the yield curve typically leads the VIX by three years? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy