U.S. Dollar Index vs. 10Y-3M Real U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (Leading Indicator) The real U.S. yield curve suggests that the U.S. dollar may weaken over the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
WTI Oil Price vs. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Oil prices tend to lead U.S. CPI inflation by 6 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Russell 2000 / S&P 500 vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Leading Indicator) The performance of U.S. small caps relative to the S&P 500 suggests a decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
M2 Annual % ROC (Advanced 12-Months) vs. GAAP Earnings (Leading Indicator) The significant decline in M2 growth puts GAAP earnings at risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – U.S. Conference Board Leading Index (LEI) Does the current decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) guarantee a recession within the next few months? Image: Deutsche Bank
Relative Performance of Prior Bull Market Leader vs. The Next Bull Market Leader Should investors continue to overweight the energy sector over the tech sector? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Index of Leading Indicators vs. Industrial Production A further deterioration in U.S. industrial production seems very likely. Image: Merrill Lynch Wealth Management
Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI The current reading of the U.S. LEI could result in lower ISM in the next few months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
China Credit Impulse and Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) – Leading Indicator Will EUR/USD peak in mid-2023? Image: Steno Research
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research