U.S. Market Cycle Indicators Chart suggesting that the current business cycle’s end is not imminent in the U.S.. The risk of a bear market is low when the number of market cycle indicators is greater than 10. Image: Richardson GMP
Cumulative Mutual Fund + ETF Flows by Bull Market Cycle: Bonds vs. Equities Flows Is this the most hated bull market in history? Well, investors continue buying bonds. Image: ICI Mutual & ETF Flow
Leon Cooperman: Bull Market Cycles Don’t End at Fair Valuation, They Ended at Overvaluation “There is still more room for the market to run. We have a slowdown but not a recession and the market is ok.” Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors founder) is a great value investor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz6ihkuW1AM
‘We are entering into the later market cycle,’ says portfolio manager Mike Morey, CIO of Integrity Viking Funds, says why investors should be more risk averse at this point of the cycle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_vVdwtu6SM
A Conversation with Howard Marks: Mastering the Market Cycle Legendary investor Howard Marks speaks about market cycles and how to profit from them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbs5e5pcVYI
Howard Marks: Pattern Recognition In Markets, Portfolio Positioning and Market Cycles (2018) Howard Marks speaks at UCLA Anderson School of Management with Alfred E. Osborne about cyclical indicators and historic market patterns to find opportunities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ATUoZ6qjpI
China Domestic Policy and Emerging Markets Growth Cycles Great chart suggesting that changes in China domestic policy have been a big driver of EM growth cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Emerging Markets and Liquidity Cycles This chart shows that investing in emerging markets also requires an understanding of global liquidity cycles. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Market/Business Cycle Historical Percentile Comparison: Today vs. 1998 & 2016 This great chart suggests that the current U.S. business cycle is in a typical late-cycle phase. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Markets Have Accurately Priced in Cuts before Easing Cycles Begin Orange lines mark days when markets priced in a rate cut. In recent history, it occurs between 33 and 281 business days before fed cut. The average is 120 business days. So, the Fed’s rate cut could take place in September 2019. You may also…
