Search Results for: real GDP

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 2.2% for 2019:Q3 as of August 15, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

U.S. Real GDP Growth Leads Core Inflation This chart suggests that U.S. real GDP growth leads core inflation by 18 months. Picture source: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

China Real GDP Growth Projection Real GDP growth in China is expected to continue to decline significantly in the coming years, with consumption becoming the main driver of growth. You may also like “Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth.” Picture source: KKR & Co.

Temporary Help Services vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recession Temporary Help Services are a good leading indicator and do not suggest a recession is looming (red line at -3.5%).

Contribution to Real GDP by Sector US GDP growth slowed in Q2 2019, but growth in US domestic demand accelerated. The US economy is still in expansion mode and fears about an imminent recession seem overblown. Picture source: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal

World Real GDP Growth The chart shows the world real GDP growth since 1985. Without a rebound, the world real GDP growth could be 3.1% this year. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management

European Economic Slowdown – Real GDP Growth 2018Q4 Is Europe’s slowdown severe? Well, this great chart shows real GDP growth in 2018Q4. Picture source: European Economic Snapshot

Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests a recession is probably not imminent.

Real GDP Increased Moderately Compared to Previous Business Cycles Even if we are currently in a late cycle, history helps us to predict the future and this cycle should not end immediately. Each line begins with the peak of the previous business cycle, as determined by the NBER. (Picture source: Blackrock)

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…