Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -4.33% YoY in March, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.
Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Relative to Prerecession Path Is the U.S. economy on fire, as U.S. real GDP has recovered faster than normal? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Real GDP and Stock-to-Bond Ratio (Leading Indicator) The stock-to-bond ratio tends to lead U.S. real GDP by 5 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Is the disconnect between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy justified? Image: Real Investment Advice
Bull Market – U.S. Real GDP Growth vs. Real U.S. 10-Year Yields The equity bull market should continue until real bond yields are much closer to real GDP growth. Image: J.P. Morgan
Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector The U.S. economy growth moderates to 4% in Q4 2020. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Real GDP and Fiscal Support Should investors favor risk assets in 2021, as additional fiscal support should provide a boost to growth? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Real GDP Forecast – Democratic Sweep vs. Republican Sweep This chart suggests what would Trump’s and Biden’s policies mean for U.S. real GDP. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Real GDP – Economic Booms and Buts U.S. real GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3 2020, one of the strongest on record. Image: CNBC
China Real GDP and Industrial Production China is experiencing a strong V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy