Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 2.39% YoY in November, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

U.S. Real GDP Growth

U.S. Real GDP Growth Recession risks are rising in the United States. Oxford Economics expects U.S. GDP to turn negative in H1 2023. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs analysts have cut their U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY

Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY Historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle tends to peak when the fed funds rate reaches the two-year trailing real GDP growth rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management