Search Results for: real GDP

Fiscal Policy Contribution to U.S. Real GDP Growth The impact of fiscal policy contribution to U.S. real GDP growth is expected to fade in 2020. Picture source: Morgan Stanley

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at 0.43% YoY in Sept., are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001 and 2007, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.7% for 2019:Q3 as of October 9, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Inequality – U.S. Wage Levels and Real GDP Growth Wage levels in the United States have barely budged in decades and have clearly not kept pace with economic growth. Picture source: Financial Times

10Y-3M Yield Curve Spread Leads U.S. Real GDP Growth This chart suggests that the 10Y-3M yield spread leads U.S. real GDP growth by one year. So, what about real GDP growth in 2020?

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Picture source: Oxford Economics

U.S. Real GDP and Components of GDP In Q2 2019, U.S. GDP was 68% personal consumption. Picture source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Real M1 Leads Euro Area Real GDP Growth An imminent recession in the euro area? This interesting chart suggests that real M1 leads euro area real GDP growth by 12 months. Picture source: Pictet Wealth Management

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Chart suggesting that U.S. real GDP growth is expected to increase in the coming quarters. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research