Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.89% YoY in December. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of Real GDP U.S. corporate profits are running far ahead of real economy growth, reaching the widest gap on record. History shows that such divergences rarely last once markets face reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth After years of Fed support, investors have been trained to buy every dip, a habit that has left U.S. markets running far ahead of economic reality. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. extending its growth lead in 2026, forecasting GDP to rise 2.6%, comfortably ahead of consensus thanks to contained inflation and a resilient jobs market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate Estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow point to 3.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3 2025, a reminder that the U.S. economy isn’t cooling just yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Underlying U.S. Real GDP Growth The AI-driven tech boom has kept the U.S. economy from slipping into recession in 2025, but whether the rally can last is far from certain—and a pullback in investment could quickly tip the balance. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Real GDP in U.S. Deutsche Bank has significantly revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2025 and early 2026, citing trade policy shocks and tighter financial conditions. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuation – Real Market Capitalization to Real GDP Ratio The inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio is a valuable tool to evaluate the U.S. stock market’s valuation. The high current ratio implies a potential overvaluation. Image: Real Investment Advice