Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -2.82% YoY in February, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector

Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector U.S. GDP grew 2.7% in Q4 2022. The housing slump was a net drag on GDP, and it’s not over yet. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth

U.S. Real GDP Growth Recession risks are rising in the United States. Oxford Economics expects U.S. GDP to turn negative in H1 2023. Image: Oxford Economics

Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY

Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY Historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle tends to peak when the fed funds rate reaches the two-year trailing real GDP growth rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management