Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects US real GDP will expand at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q2 2025, marking a significant rebound from the prior quarter’s contraction. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.12% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, both slightly above the consensus estimates of major forecasters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and policymakers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real GDP in U.S. Deutsche Bank has significantly revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2025 and early 2026, citing trade policy shocks and tighter financial conditions. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuation – Real Market Capitalization to Real GDP Ratio The inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio is a valuable tool to evaluate the U.S. stock market’s valuation. The high current ratio implies a potential overvaluation. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real GDP and Inflation The U.S. economy has avoided recessions and stagflations 90% of the time, inspiring confidence in investors and showcasing the country’s commitment to long-term economic stability and growth. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
China Real GDP Growth Forecast The downturn in growth in China may be stabilizing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research