U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 downward from 2.4% to 1.7%, citing increasingly adverse trade policy assumptions under President Donald Trump’s administration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.79% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts -2.4% annualized growth for Q1 2025. This pessimistic outlook may be exaggerated, as the trade deficit surge was primarily due to businesses importing goods ahead of anticipated tariffs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth If the trade war does not escalate further, the effects from the new policies on U.S. GDP are small and largely offsetting in the baseline outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real GDP in U.S. The revised U.S. GDP growth for Q2 2024, at an annual rate of 3%, highlights strong economic performance, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment, with expectations for continued growth in the near future. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuation – Real Market Capitalization to Real GDP Ratio The inflation-adjusted market capitalization to GDP ratio is a valuable tool to evaluate the U.S. stock market’s valuation. The high current ratio implies a potential overvaluation. Image: Real Investment Advice
Real GDP and Inflation The U.S. economy has avoided recessions and stagflations 90% of the time, inspiring confidence in investors and showcasing the country’s commitment to long-term economic stability and growth. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
China Real GDP Growth Forecast The downturn in growth in China may be stabilizing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP “New-New Normal” Will a sustained period of low economic growth be the “new normal” for the United States? Image: Real Investment Advice