Search Results for: real GDP

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 3.2% for 2023:Q1. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs at -2.82% YoY in February, are a good leading indicator before a recession (red line at -3.5%). In 2001, 2007 and 2020, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY, a recession began in the United States.

Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector U.S. GDP grew 2.7% in Q4 2022. The housing slump was a net drag on GDP, and it’s not over yet. Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Real GDP Growth vs. Current Activity Indicator (CAI) Goldman Sachs expects global real GDP growth of only 1.8% in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Recession – U.S. Real GDP and Financial Conditions Index (Leading Indicator) Financial conditions tend to lead U.S. real GDP by 3 months. Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. Real GDP Growth Recession risks are rising in the United States. Oxford Economics expects U.S. GDP to turn negative in H1 2023. Image: Oxford Economics

Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY Historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle tends to peak when the fed funds rate reaches the two-year trailing real GDP growth rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Is the disconnect between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy justified? Image: Real Investment Advice

Real GDP Growth in the United States Since 1947, a negative GDP quarter has been rare outside of a U.S. recession. Image: Deutsche Bank