U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. 10-Year Bund Yield It is becoming more common for German bund yields to be below U.S. yields, which can be attributed to the difference in economic conditions and fiscal policies between Germany and the United States. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Market Depth on 10-Year USTs and 10-Year Bund Futures Will market depth on 10Y USTs and 10Y Bund futures continue to improve? Image: J.P. Morgan
Stocks – MSCI EMU Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Bund Yield (Equity Risk Premium) The equity risk premium below its 10-year average does not bode well for eurozone stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and 10-Year Bund/UST EUR/USD looks expensive vs. real 10-year rate differentials. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Germany – Explaining 10-Year Bund Yields This great chart suggests that demographics explain Germany’s 10-year bund yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
10-Year German Bund Yield and German Manufacturing PMI The 10-year German Bund yield could go positive again as recession fears dissipate. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
European Equities Lead Bund Yields by 6 Months Because European equities tend to lead bund yields by 6 months, bund yields should turn higher. Image: Reuters
S&P 500 Stocks and Non-S&P 500 Stocks as a % of U.S. Large Cap Funds AUM Despite the abundance of stocks, the lack of interest in investing beyond the “Magnificent Seven” creates bias, leading to excessive attention and favoritism that may undervalue or neglect other investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy