Keyword: activity

S&P 500 vs. U.S. Business Activity Index and Recessions This chart suggests that a recession in the U.S. is not imminent. Image: Paolo Cardena

U.S. IPO Activity Chart showing the fall in new listings, while WeWork’s abandoned IPO. Image: Financial Times

Construction Sector Activity and Recessions This chart clearly shows that growth of activity in the construction sector is slowing down. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

China Industrial Activity and U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield This chart shows the quite good correlation between China industrial activity and the U.S. treasury 10-year yield. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Global Manufacturing Activity The number of countries in contraction is higher than the number of countries in expansion. Image: Financial Times

Chicago Fed National Activity Index The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.02 in June, but stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth and anything at or below -0.7 is equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend…

Broad Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Forecast Chart suggesting that the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in 2020, as global economic activity improves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Debt to Net Worth Ratio for U.S. Households vs. Financial Obligations Ratio Chart suggesting that U.S. household finances are in good shape. This is good news for consumption spending, which accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

Chinese Credit Growth and OECD Leading Indicator for China Chinese Credit growth rebounded in September and suggests stronger activity on the horizon. The OECD leading indicator for China picked up further at the highest level since 2017. Image: Danske Bank Research

Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Index suggests first signs of manufacturing activity bottoming out. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research