U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.47% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Inflation – U.S. Headline CPI and Retail Gasoline Price Should U.S. equity investors remain bullish as there is a high correlation between U.S. headline CPI and retail gasoline prices? Image: BCA Research
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales Is a “recession shock” coming to the United States? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Retail Inventories Retail inventories in the United States continue to rise. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Retail Favorites Will retail investor stock picks continue to underperform the S&P 500 this year? Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance and Discretionary Retail Spending (Leading Indicator) The performance of the S&P 500 tends to lead discretionary retail spending by 9 months. Image: TS Lombard
Tech Stocks – Net Retail Investment Flow Will retail investors’ love of tech stocks continue? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Net Retail Investment Flow as a % of Aggregate Market Capitalization Aggregate small-cap outflows by retail investors have been significant compared to their aggregate market capitalization. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Average Daily Retail Equity Buy-Sell Flow and Smart Money Flow Index Individual investors have bought all the dips this year, while institutional investors have de-risked their portfolios. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Estimated Net Retail Flow vs. S&P 500 Return Will retail investors keep buying the dip? Image: Morgan Stanley Quantitative and Derivative Strategies