U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales stand at 9.17% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Estimated Average Daily Retail Equity Buy-Sell Flow and Smart Money Flow Index Individual investors have bought all the dips this year, while institutional investors have de-risked their portfolios. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Estimated Net Retail Flow vs. S&P 500 Return Will retail investors keep buying the dip? Image: Morgan Stanley Quantitative and Derivative Strategies
Estimated Monthly Daily Retail Buy – Sell $ Flow Will retail investors remain committed to buying stocks, especially on down days? Image: Morgan Stanley Quantitative and Derivative Strategies
Retail Trading – Single Stocks Call Volume Will retail trading remain at a high level? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Estimated Retail Flow into U.S. Equities and ETFs Is the retail investor stock buying boom just beginning? Image: J.P. Morgan Quantitative and Derivative Strategy
Ecommerce Sales in the U.S. as % of Total Retail Sales Retail ecommerce boom continues in the United States. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales U.S. nonfarm payrolls remain artificially low. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Share of Cash in Retail Transactions The use of cash in retail transactions is gradually declining. Image: Financial Times
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Retail Favorites Retail investor stock picks are still beating the S&P 500 by a large margin since 2020’s March low. Image: J.P. Morgan