U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales at 1.85% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Nonstore Retail Sales

U.S. Nonstore Retail Sales This chart puts into perspective U.S. nonstore retail sales, which are a proxy measure for ecommerce performance. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Retail Vulnerability High

U.S. Retail Vulnerability High Retail job cuts due to bankruptcies are way up and hit highest level since 2005. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…