U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In January, U.S. real retail sales at 1.85% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price and Retail Automotive Gasoline U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to fall, as OPEC+ failed to agree production cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Nonstore Retail Sales This chart puts into perspective U.S. nonstore retail sales, which are a proxy measure for ecommerce performance. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
U.S. Retail Vulnerability High Retail job cuts due to bankruptcies are way up and hit highest level since 2005. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Discretionary Retail Establishments in the United States Chart suggesting that the rise of ecommerce is having a real impact on retail stores. Image: Financial Times
Consumer, Housing & Retail, Imports-Exports and Industrial Chart suggesting that consumer strength should pull the industrial economy upwards. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Ecommerce as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales in the U.S. U.S. retail e-commerce sales now account for 11 percent of total sales. Image: Financial Times
Global Employment and Global Real Retail Sales Chart suggesting that the slowdown in global employment is expected to impact global real retail sales. Image: J.P. Morgan
Global Consumers (Housing and Retail) vs. Confidence (Soft Data) Chart showing the large divergence between global hard data and confidence (soft data). Confidence still refuses to rebound. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…