U.S. Composite Activity Indicator vs. Monthly U.S. GDP Forecast The J.P. Morgan composite activity indicator has lined up with reported monthly GDP so far, as retail enjoys swift revival in sales. Image: J.P. Morgan
Sentiment – AAII Bull/Bear Spread and S&P 500 Retail investors remain bearish, despite the market rally. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 and Average Number of Accounts Holding S&P 500 Stocks Are retail traders behind the market’s recent rally? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Investor Movement Index vs. S&P 500 The Investor Movement Index indicates the sentiment of TD Ameritrade retail investors. Thus, retail investors are net buyers of equities when the stock market is expensive, and they are net sellers of equities when the stock market is cheap. As usual, retail investors react to equity price movements. They buy and sell…
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…