Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted More than 60% of yield curves are inverted. Recession risk in the United States rises significantly when the number of inverted yield curves exceeds 50%. Image: Charles Schwab
Yield Curve – Fed Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Should investors expect the fed funds/10-year UST yield curve to invert? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 30-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread The 30Y-2Y inverted yield curve does not bode well for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted U.S. recession risk rises significantly when the number of inverted yield curves exceeds 50%, as it is today. Image: Real Investment Advice
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 27% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. 10Y-5Y Yield Curve and Recessions Can investors expect a steepening yield curve as a recession hedge? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? Investors should care about an inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread The 10Y-2Y inverted yield curve does not bode well for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Fed Funds Target Rate Historically, the Fed doesn’t pivot policy until a recession arrives and the 10Y-3M US Treasury yield curve inverts. Is it really different this time? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recession – Diffusion Index of Every Possible Yield Curve Inversion The increasing number of inverted yield curves does not bode well for the U.S. economy. A recession in the United States seems increasingly likely. Image: Macrobond