Median Path of S&P 500 Around Un-Inversion in the 2s10s U.S. Treasury Yield Curve An un-inversion in the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve can suggest a positive outlook for U.S. stocks, if a recession is avoided. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically served as a warning sign for U.S. recessions, the current economic context of expected Fed rate cuts and strong economic indicators suggests this time may be different Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Yield Curve vs. VIX (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors anticipate increased volatility ahead, given that the yield curve typically leads the VIX by three years? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Slope A positive yield curve is good news for the U.S. economy. However, recession probability models based on the yield curve slope point to elevated odds of a recession in the next year. Could this time be an exception? Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Historically, the inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has accurately forecasted every U.S. recession, and its current inversion is a cause for concern. Is this time an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 63.1% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have accurately forecasted every US recession, making them a crucial indicator. Is this time an exception? Image: Real Investment Advice
10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The 10Y-3M Yield Curve Although the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve is not on the verge of uninverting, historical data suggests that the “uninversion” of the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of an impending recession. Image: Bianco Research
Consecutive Trading Days of Inverted 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The anticipation of Fed easing is being driven by the aging of yield curve inversion. Market participants are expecting the Fed to cut rates in order to stimulate economic growth and prevent a potential recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management