Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 5.8% in March. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve Slope and U.S. 10-Year Rates (3-Month Implied Volatility) U.S. 10-year rates volatility is higher with stepper U.S. 2s10s yield curve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. Treasury yield curve to steepen further in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – S&P 500 Banks vs. 10Y-3M U.S. Treasury Yield Curve U.S. banks have lagged the broad market over the last 12 months, despite the yield curve steepening. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Yield Curve – Spread Between the 10-Year and 2-Year Treasuries A steepening yield curve suggests a stronger economic growth and rising inflation. Image: CNBC
U.S. M1 Money Supply Growth vs. Steepness of U.S. Yield Curve The U.S. yield curve is expected to steepen as M1 money supply growth goes to the moon. Image: Longview Economics
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Fed Balance Sheet Total Reserves What is the risk of tapering? After Dec-13 tapering, the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened considerably. Image: Deutsche Bank
FMS Investors and Yield Curve Expectations 83% of FMS investors expects a steeper yield curve. This is an all-time high. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. Yield Curve If the U.S. yield curve continues to steepen, it should be negative for the U.S. dollar. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve vs. U.S. Excess Liquidity (Leading Indicator) U.S. excess liquidity tends to lead the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve by 9 months. Image: Variant Perception Research