Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 20.8% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Yield Curve – Difference 5-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields The yield curve steepens after the Fed pivot. Are Gold prices at risk? Image: Financial Times
Yield Curve and U.S. Real GDP Growth – Broad-Based Recovery in 2021 The current steepening of the yield curve suggests a long road to recovery Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Real Yield Curve and 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Real Yield Curve Economic stress remains as the U.S. real yield curve remains in negative territory. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
10/2 Treasury Yield Curve vs. 12-Month Forward EPS (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that the 10/2 Treasury yield curve tends to lead 12-month forward EPS by 22 months. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Treasury 30Y-5Y Yield Curve and Probability of U.S. Senate Democratic Control A Democratic sweep is a possibility, as the yield curve now tracks the likelihood of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Percent of Yield Curves Inverted In recent history, U.S. recessions were preceded by yield curve inversion. It’s not different this time. Image: Macrobond Financial
U.S. Recession Probabilities Based on the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, based on the yield curves, has risen significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted This chart shows that 40% of the 10-yield spreads have inverted again, as the coronavirus spreads from China. Image: Real Investment Advice