M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions

M1 Money Supply vs. Yield Curve and Recessions Great chart showing the correlation between M1 money supply and the yield curve. The key factor for inverted yield curves is tight money. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Recessions since 1941

U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Recessions since 1941 Since 1941, three recessions have occured without 2s10s yield curve inversion. The yield curve is a great recession indicator among others. Picture source: Deutsche Bank

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion

ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management

S&P 500 and U.S. 2s-10s Yield Curve

S&P 500 and U.S. 2s-10s Yield Curve This chart shows the S&P 500 percentage change (YoY) and the U.S. 2s-10s yield curve. Picture source: Morgan Stanley

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts

Time from 2s-10s Yield Curve Inversion until Recession Starts Recession tends to start in one to three years after the yield curve inversion. Keep in mind that the yield curve is only one indicator among others of an economic puzzle. Picture source: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar History tells us that the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 could go higher, and the yield curve could stay inverted until mid-2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Picture to Enlarge