Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
FMS Global Yield Curve Expectations vs. U.S. Large/Small Cap Price Relative History suggests that U.S. small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks, when the yield curve steepens. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased from 37.9% to 31%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. High Yield Bonds Chart suggesting that high yield prices are not likely to perform well. Image: Morgan Stanley
10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion Until U.S. Recession Starts An inverted yield curve doesn’t always mean that a recession is imminent. But historically, a sustained yield curve inversion has been a good indicator of recession. Image: Legg Mason
Yield Curve and Banks A steeper yield curve helps banks to borrow more cheaply and lend at higher rates of interest. Image: Morgan Stanley
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar vs. U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve A support for U.S. dollar bears could be a significant Fed easing, resulting in a steeper yield curve. Image: Saxo Bank
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 Historical Performance in Different Yield Curve Regimes Great table showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury spread and the S&P 500 historical performance. Image: J.P. Morgan
