Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 79.3% in May. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Inverted yield curves have often preceded U.S. recessions in the past. Is it any different this time? Image: Real Investment Advice
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 3-Month Treasury Spread So far, the inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen. Image: The Daily Shot
Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Recessions The U.S. 10Y-3M Treasury yield curve has historically been used as an indicator of potential recession risk. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted Although the percentage of inverted yield curves has fallen to 78% from 90% in March, the risk of a U.S. recession remains high. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve The inverted U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve, which is historically a reliable indicator of an impending recession, continues to deepen. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve vs. Recessionary Bear Market Lows Historically, a steepening inverted US 10Y-2Y yield curve tends to precede recessionary bear market lows. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has preceded recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Dollar Index vs. 10Y-3M Real U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (Leading Indicator) The real U.S. yield curve suggests that the U.S. dollar may weaken over the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management