10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has often been an early warning sign of an upcoming recession in the United States. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve The inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve, which has accurately predicted every U.S. recession in the past, remains a cause for concern. Could this time be an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 57.8% in July. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
The 10Y-3M Yield Curve Although the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve is not on the verge of uninverting, historical data suggests that the “uninversion” of the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of an impending recession. Image: Bianco Research
Median Path of S&P 500 Around Un-Inversion in the 2s10s U.S. Treasury Yield Curve An un-inversion in the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve may suggest a positive outlook for U.S. stocks if there is no recession within 12 months Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consecutive Trading Days of Inverted 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The anticipation of Fed easing is being driven by the aging of yield curve inversion. Market participants are expecting the Fed to cut rates in order to stimulate economic growth and prevent a potential recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Recessions The U.S. 10Y-3M Treasury yield curve has been a reliable recession risk indicator, but every economic situation is unique and historical patterns may not repeat exactly. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
12-Month Rolling Money Market In/(Out)Flows vs. NY Fed 12-Month Ahead Yield Curve Implied Recession Probability The probability of a U.S. recession can significantly influence investor behavior, potentially leading to a rotation out of money markets if the likelihood of a recession diminishes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have often signaled upcoming U.S. recessions, making them an important indicator that economists and analysts closely monitor to assess the condition of the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice