Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 58.8% in November. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have frequently foreshadowed U.S. recessions, making them a crucial indicator that economists and analysts closely monitor to evaluate the state of the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims After Yield Curve Inversion Is there a difference this time in the association between an inverted yield curve, usually indicating economic decline, and the potential for job losses? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Conference Board Consumer Confidence and U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historically, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has tended to follow consumer confidence, underscoring the importance of monitoring consumer confidence as a potential indicator of future yield curve movements. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Consecutive Trading Days of Inverted 10Y-3M U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The inversion of the 10Y-3M UST yield curve typically reflects market expectations of slower economic growth and potentially lower interest rates in the future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted The risk of a U.S. recession cannot be ruled out. Image: Charles Schwab
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve The inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve could be seen as a potential warning sign of a recession ahead. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Yield Curve – Which Yield Spread Matters? An inverted yield curve, which has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years, is something that investors should care about. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – Diffusion Index of Every Possible Yield Curve Inversion The increasing number of inverted yield curves is a negative sign, but does not necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Image: Macrobond
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 3-Month Treasury Spread So far, the inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen. Image: The Daily Shot