Keyword: yield curve

Yield Curve vs. Global Equities Global yield curves suggest optimism for risk assets in 2020. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. Rates and Yield Curve Chart suggesting that the triangle pattern could drive the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 2% this year. Image: Fidelity Investments

10Y-2Y Yield Curve and U.S. Recession The U.S. yield curve is steepening and suggests optimism for 2020, as investors become more confident in the U.S. economy. Image: Financial Times

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 27% in December. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

What Is the Yield Curve Saying Now? The current flat yield curve suggests low growth and inflation. Image: Swedbank Research

Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

FMS Global Yield Curve Expectations vs. U.S. Large/Small Cap Price Relative History suggests that U.S. small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks, when the yield curve steepens. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC