What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…

Probability of a U.S. Recession

Probability of a U.S. Recession The likelihood of a recession in the United States is increasing rapidly. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of Recession in the U.S.

Probability of Recession in the U.S. Chart suggesting the probability of recession in the U.S. over the 12 next months, based on various metrics. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. ISM Recession Probability

U.S. ISM Recession Probability Chart showing that historically, a level greater than 44.5% has indicated a recession. Current U.S. ISM levels suggest a recession probability of 10%. Image: Pictet Asset Management