Search Results for: probability

Interest Rates – Probability of Fed Rate Hike Should investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise the terminal rate above 5% to curb inflation? Image: The Daily Shot

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 63.3% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Probability of a U.S. Recession The 12-month ahead U.S. recession probability continues to increase. Image: J.P. Morgan

Probability of U.S. Recession Over the Next 12 Months The likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months continues to increase. Image: Deutsche Bank

Professional Forecasters Probability of Recession Recession fears grow among professional forecasters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Credit-Based Recession Probability The U.S. credit recession indicator suggests that a U.S. recession is still less likely through the second quarter of 2023. Image: Deutsche Bank

Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs still sees the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Market-based indicators have priced a higher probability of a U.S. recession in the next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Recession Probability Indicator The odds of a recession in the United States are still rising. Image: Alpine Macro

S&P 500 Recession Probability Priced In Currently, the S&P 500 implies a 20% probability of a recession in the United States. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy