Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Concerns over tariffs and potential layoffs have raised the estimated likelihood of a U.S. recession, with the S&P 500’s recent decline indicating a 49% chance of economic downturn. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge the likelihood of an…
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month US recession forecast to 45%, down from 65%, citing reduced risks after the tariff pause. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 27.3% in March. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
What Do You Think the Probability of There Being a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Is? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide indicates an average 43% expectation of a U.S. recession within 12 months, reflecting an uncertain economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 20%, which is slightly higher than the long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown While the macroeconomic environment may still support U.S. equities, Goldman Sachs’ model indicates an increasing risk of a stock market correction in the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the coming year remains at 15%, according to Goldman Sachs, in line with the long-term historical average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high S&P 500 volatility regime has increased, suggesting that elevated volatility could persist throughout 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research