Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, increased to 7.6% in July. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of an S&P 500 > 10% Drawdown in the Next 12 Months The probability of a 10% drawdown or more for the S&P 500 in the next 12 months is increasing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high volatility regime has fallen sharply and that of low volality is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Interest Rates – Probability of Fed Rate Hike The probability of two Fed rate hikes by the end of 2022 is declining. Image: The Daily Shot
New York Fed Probability of U.S. Recession and Negative GDP Growth The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12-months is very low. Image: Richardson Wealth
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Historically, lengthening one’s time horizon has been one approach to reducing losses. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Prediction Market Probability that Democrats Have Control Following the 2020 U.S. Election The prediction market probability of the Democrats taking control of the Senate has increased to 32%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical Probability of S&P 500 6M Realised Volatility Above 18% and ISM Historically, high-volatility regimes are unlikely with high levels of ISM. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – U.S. Equity Return Corresponding with 10 Percentage Point Increase in Probability of Vaccine Mass Distribution by Mid-2021 Value stocks tend to outperform when vaccine expectations improve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan