Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 20% in September. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan
Implied Probability of Vice President Biden Winning 2020 Presidential Election Is Joe Biden’s advantage underestimated? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Options-Implied Probability Distributions Option markets are quite bullish on gold. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime Chart suggesting that volatility is expected to remain elevated in the coming months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research
Interest Rates – Market-Implied Probability of Negative Policy Rate 1 Year Ahead Negative interest rates in the US and the UK ahead? Option markets point to elevated probabilities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Deflation Probability (Inflation Below Zero) This chart suggests the high probability that the U.S. inflation rate will fall below zero over the next 12 months.
U.S. Treasury 30Y-5Y Yield Curve and Probability of U.S. Senate Democratic Control A Democratic sweep is a possibility, as the yield curve now tracks the likelihood of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee