Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 13%, market-implied recession odds for the next year are below the long-term average, pointing to a supportive risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is the market too complacent about the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P. Morgan
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The rally has made U.S. equities harder to chase. Upside looks limited, while the risk of a pullback is building as valuations stretch. The risk-reward now looks less compelling. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability Markets now price in just a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, keeping recession fears modest and consistent with a moderate-risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability May’s tariff relief helped temper U.S. recession odds and buoy investor sentiment, but this new round of trade tensions could put that fragile calm to the test. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity