Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 35%, which is quite high by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 59.8% in September. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The 12-month forward implied change in the federal funds rate indicates a 97% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year. Is this time different? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability The consensus likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months is estimated to be around 30%, which points to a moderate risk of an economic downturn. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 suggests a 26% probability of a recession in the United States, reflecting some concerns among investors. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge the likelihood of an impending U.S. recession, given historical trends. On average, the…
Probability of Fed Rate Cut With U.S. inflation and the labor market showing signs of cooling, should investors and traders expect three 25bps Fed rate cuts by the end of the year? Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Probability of U.S. Recession within a Year Based on the tight spread between the S&P 500 and BBB-rated corporate bonds, the risk of a recession in the United States within one year appears low. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession The decline in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is viewed as a positive sign, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan