Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months stands at 18%, just above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability suggests a modestly elevated risk of a U.S. recession within the next year, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The S&P 500 has reached a point where the probabilities of a sharp rally and a meaningful drawdown are closely aligned, signaling a market at equilibrium. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…
Probability of U.S. Recession The rise in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is seen as a negative sign, highlighting economic risks that could affect market sentiment and change investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
What Do You Think the Probability of There Being a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Is? Deutsche Bank’s survey of 400 financial professionals worldwide indicates an average 43% expectation of a U.S. recession within 12 months, reflecting an uncertain economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Recession Probability Model vs. MSCI ACWI NDR’s Global Recession Probability Model is at its lowest level in nearly four years, signaling a positive outlook for global equities. Image: Ned Davis Research