Keyword: probability

Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next Four Quarters U.S. recession risk continues to drift lower, thanks to favourable financial and labor market conditions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 204,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…

What is the Probability that the U.S. Enters an Economic Recession over the Next 12 Months? The latest edition of BofA’s US credit investor survey shows that recession fears have dropped to 16.3%. Image: BofA US Credit Investor Survey

U.S. Recession Probability Based on 29 Macro and Market Factors The U.S. recession probability is still below its average 6 months prior to the past 9 recessions. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 27% in December. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Probability of U.S. Recession – Real Economic Variables vs. Financial Variables Real economic variables do not suggest that a recession is imminent, while financial variables point to a higher risk of recession. Image: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Image to Enlarge  

Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of U.S. recession in the next 12 months has turned lower in recent weeks to 10%. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey