Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The current environment poses an increased risk of a U.S. equity drawdown exceeding 20% over the next 12 months and 10% over the next 3 months, with a notable probability nearing 30%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs predicts a 15% chance of a U.S. recession in the next one year, which aligns with the long-term historical average for recession likelihood. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five years. Image: Goldman Sachs
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 30.8% in December. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Concerns about a recession are like those pesky weeds in your garden: they never really go away, but at least the market thinks it’s finally time to trim them back—U.S. recession risk is at its lowest in two…
U.S. Recession Probability The consensus likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next year is estimated to be around 25%, which points to a moderate risk of an economic downturn. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup
U.S. Election Scenario Probability As Republicans gain momentum heading into the U.S. elections, the prospect of their sweeping victory raises both hopes for short-term economic gains and fears of larger deficits and sustained inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs has reduced its U.S. recession forecast probability from 20% to 15% based on recent macroeconomic data, especially a strong employment report that surpassed expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 suggests a 26% probability of a recession in the United States, reflecting some concerns among investors. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge the likelihood of an impending U.S. recession, given historical trends. On average, the…
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy