Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of a Recession in the Next 12 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased, but remains high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession in 12 Months Based on the Slope of the Yield Curve The yield curve slope suggests odds of a recession in the next 12 months at less than 30% in the U.S., and the continuation of economic expansion. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey
What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 211,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.14% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…
Probability of VIX Spiking Above 20 and Growth Level The probability of VIX spiking above 20 in the next 3 months is 60% at this level of growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stall Probability by Scenario for U.S. Payroll Employment Chart suggesting that stall risks rise considerably and could intensify with greater deceleration in payroll employment in 2020. Image: Barclays Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Within 12 and 24 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of U.S. recession within 12 and 24 months remains relatively moderate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Based on 29 Macro and Market Factors The U.S. recession probability is still below its average 6 months prior to the past 9 recessions. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased from 37.9% to 31%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Japan Recession Probability Chances of a recession in Japan are pretty high. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
