Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 14.9% in December. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Prediction Market Probability that Democrats Have Control Following the 2020 U.S. Election The prediction market probability of the Democrats taking control of the Senate has increased to 32%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical Probability of S&P 500 6M Realised Volatility Above 18% and ISM Historically, high-volatility regimes are unlikely with high levels of ISM. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Historically, lengthening one’s time horizon has been one approach to reducing losses. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Stocks – U.S. Equity Return Corresponding with 10 Percentage Point Increase in Probability of Vaccine Mass Distribution by Mid-2021 Value stocks tend to outperform when vaccine expectations improve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan
Implied Probability of Vice President Biden Winning 2020 Presidential Election Is Joe Biden’s advantage underestimated? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Options-Implied Probability Distributions Option markets are quite bullish on gold. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime Chart suggesting that volatility is expected to remain elevated in the coming months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research