U.S. Treasury 30Y-5Y Yield Curve and Probability of U.S. Senate Democratic Control A Democratic sweep is a possibility, as the yield curve now tracks the likelihood of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Inflation – Probability Headline CPI Exceeds 2.0% YoY U.S. inflation expectations are rebounding for the first time this year. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…
Probability of a U.S. Recession The likelihood of a recession in the United States is increasing rapidly. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Within 12 Months Chart suggesting that the risk of slipping into recession is rising significantly. Image: Bloomberg Economics
Probability of U.S. Recession Beginning Within 12 Months This chart suggests the probability of recession in the U.S. beginning within 12 months, based on various metrics. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 25.9% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of Recession in the U.S. Chart suggesting the probability of recession in the U.S. over the 12 next months, based on various metrics. Image: J.P. Morgan