What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 204,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…

Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months

Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Chart suggesting that the probability of U.S. recession in the next 12 months has turned lower in recent weeks to 10%. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability

Survey – U.S. Recession Probability U.S. recession fears are fading and U.S. credit investors now see a 21% chance of recession over the next 12 months. It was 25% in September. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Credit Investor Survey