What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…
Probability of a U.S. Recession The likelihood of a recession in the United States is increasing rapidly. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Within 12 Months Chart suggesting that the risk of slipping into recession is rising significantly. Image: Bloomberg Economics
Probability of U.S. Recession Beginning Within 12 Months This chart suggests the probability of recession in the U.S. beginning within 12 months, based on various metrics. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 25.9% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of Recession in the U.S. Chart suggesting the probability of recession in the U.S. over the 12 next months, based on various metrics. Image: J.P. Morgan
University of Michigan Stock Market Increase Probability Next Year and S&P 500 Drawdowns This chart suggests to remain vigilant on the U.S. stock market, when bullish sentiment is so high. Image: Bloomberg
Probability of U.S. Recession vs. Initial Jobless Claims The probability of U.S. recession beginning within 12 months decreases. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. ISM Recession Probability Chart showing that historically, a level greater than 44.5% has indicated a recession. Current U.S. ISM levels suggest a recession probability of 10%. Image: Pictet Asset Management