Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 5.8% in March. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Historically, lengthening one’s time horizon has been one approach to reducing losses. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Prediction Market Probability that Democrats Have Control Following the 2020 U.S. Election The prediction market probability of the Democrats taking control of the Senate has increased to 32%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Historical Probability of S&P 500 6M Realised Volatility Above 18% and ISM Historically, high-volatility regimes are unlikely with high levels of ISM. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – U.S. Equity Return Corresponding with 10 Percentage Point Increase in Probability of Vaccine Mass Distribution by Mid-2021 Value stocks tend to outperform when vaccine expectations improve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting the probability of U.S. recession as currently priced across asset classes. Image: J.P. Morgan
Implied Probability of Vice President Biden Winning 2020 Presidential Election Is Joe Biden’s advantage underestimated? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Options-Implied Probability Distributions Option markets are quite bullish on gold. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime Chart suggesting that volatility is expected to remain elevated in the coming months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Election – Nasdaq vs. Probability of Democratic Presidential Win in 2020 Has the market already priced in a democratic victory in November? Image: Variant Perception Research