Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 21.4%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Markets are putting the odds of a U.S. recession at 15% over the next year, a reminder that risk is real but not yet alarming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability May’s tariff relief helped temper U.S. recession odds and buoy investor sentiment, but this new round of trade tensions could put that fragile calm to the test. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year—higher than the long-run norm, but still pointing to only moderate downside risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally After a powerful rally, the S&P 500 looks stretched, and the odds of a near-term pullback—or at best, a sideways pause—are building. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within one year is modestly elevated but not extremely high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six months, giving investors a data-driven reason for optimism about the market outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes The S&P 500 is pricing in about a 25% chance of a recession, which is lower than signals from copper prices or the yield curve, but higher than the recession probabilities implied by global equities or high-yield credit markets. Analysts often use the current percentage change…