ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 59.5% in July. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index In a situation of extreme excess liquidity, is the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve a broken indicator? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. HY – IG Spread As the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index appears to have peaked, should investors position their portfolios for coming flight-to-quality? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a mid-cycle shift this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index There is a quite good correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and the performance of the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Median Forward S&P 500 Return Based on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the median forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Discretionary Investors Positioning The correlation between discretionary investor equity positioning and ISM manufacturing is quite strong.
ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Ratio to 12-Month Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 tends to pull back as economic growth peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Forward S&P 500 Return Conditional on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 and 6 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research