Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Performance 12-Months After ISM Manufacturing Index Below 50 for Four Months Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied 12-months later, 80% of the time, after the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50 for four months, with an average return of 12%. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (All History) History clearly shows that the current U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is low. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 48.1 in November. Keep in mind that it is a survey. Click the Image to Enlarge
Semiconductor Prices and ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the surge in semiconductor prices implies ISM Manufacturing Index above 55 in the next 3-months. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP U.S. ISM indices suggest a slowdown in the US growth rate, but not an imminent recession. Image source: ING Economics
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is probably bottoming now and could bounce back. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
ISM Manufacturing Index and CEO Confidence Lead S&P 500 Buybacks Chart suggesting that ISM Manufacturing Index and CEO Confidence lead S&P 500 buybacks. Share buybacks are projected to decline further. Source: BCA Research