ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 61.1% in September. Click the Image to Enlarge
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Discretionary Investors Positioning The correlation between discretionary investor equity positioning and ISM manufacturing is quite strong at 67%.
ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Prices Paid Index (Leading Indicator) The ISM Prices Paid Index tends to lead the ISM Manufacturing Index by 12 months, suggesting a mid-cycle shift this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index In a situation of extreme excess liquidity, is the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve a broken indicator? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. HY – IG Spread As the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index appears to have peaked, should investors position their portfolios for coming flight-to-quality? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
ISM Manufacturing Index and SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index There is a quite good correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and the performance of the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Median Forward S&P 500 Return Based on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the median forward return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions Economic growth tends to peak about a year after the recession ends. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Ratio to 12-Month Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 tends to pull back as economic growth peaks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Forward S&P 500 Return Conditional on ISM Manufacturing Index at Time of Investment When the ISM is above 60, like today, the return on the S&P 500 tends to be negative over the next 3 and 6 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research