Yield Curve 10Y-2Y vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives This chart shows the nice correlation between ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Cyclicals vs. Defensives. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index – Mini-Cycles and Recessions During the economic cycle, the last mini-cycle usually leads to a recession. Picture source: Charles Schwab
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield The decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields has been in line with falling ISM PMI. Picture Source: Deutsche Bank
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Financial Conditions Index Great chart suggesting that the ISM Manufacturing Index could be below 50 soon, and bounce back due to the drop in interest rates around the world. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI This chart suggests that ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“ Click the Picture to Enlarge
200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This excellent chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It suggests that U.S. PMI could be below 50 in 3Q19, and could bounce back in 2020. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows a good correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. PMI index of 50 (no expansion/contraction) suggests a flat S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change. You may also like “Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index.”
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Picture source: Deutsche Bank
