Search Results for: ISM Manufacturing Index

U.S. Dollar and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that sharp falls in the ISM Manufacturing Index are associated with U.S. dollar strength, not weakness. Picture source: HSBC

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and cyclicals EPS revision, suggesting that 4Q19 will see a reset, with capital goods pricing in an actual earnings recession. Picture source: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) Annual core CPI in September remained steady at 2.4% . This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclical Stocks Great chart showing that cyclical stocks suggest an economic slowdown rather than an imminent recession. Picture source: Leuthold Group

Correlation Between U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Regional Indexes This chart shows the quite good correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and regional indexes (Philly Fed, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, and NY Empire). Picture source: Saxo Bank

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Historical Mean The historical mean of the ISM Manufacturing Index stands at 52.9. Picture source: Saxo Bank Research & Strategy

200D Change in Yield Curve 30Y-10Y Leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index This great chart suggests that 200-Day Change in Yield Curve 30-Year minus 10-Year spread leads U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 16 months. It also suggests that U.S. PMI is bottoming and could bounce back. Picture source: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Minus ISM Manufacturing Index and Real U.S. Dollar Index This chart suggests that a strong dollar hurts U.S. manufacturers. Picture source: Oxford Economics

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Picture source: Swedbank Research

U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Picture source: Pictet Asset Management