U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Core Inflation Leading Indicator) US annual core CPI in November stayed unchanged at 2.3%. This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5% in January and suggests faster expansion in January than in December. Image: Oxford Economics
S&P 500 and ISM Manufacturing Index In recent history, when the ISM Manufacturing Index rose above 50, the S&P500 rose by about 2% on average over the next 3 months Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index This chart shows the correlation between the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P 500 index year-over-year percent change, since 2011. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 50.9 in January. Keep in mind that it is a survey. Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 When ISM Manufacturing Index Rises Above 50 When the ISM Manufacturing Index rises above 50, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar tend to weaken, while the S&P 500 tends to rise. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (All History) History clearly shows that the current U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is low. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 Realized Volatility Interesting chart suggesting the correlation between the S&P 500 realized volatility and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the 10Y-2Y spread (YoY) leads the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
ISM Manufacturing Index and Credit Returns Across Economic Cycles Since 2004 If investors get the ISM Manufacturing right, they do well. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Performance 12-Months After ISM Manufacturing Index Below 50 for Four Months Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied 12-months later, 80% of the time, after the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50 for four months, with an average return of 12%. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC