S&P 500 Returns After a Golden Cross (50-Day MA Above the 200-Day MA) Since 1950, the S&P 500’s golden cross has been a reliable bullish signal, generating median returns of 13% over the following year, with positive returns about 80% of the time—giving bulls plenty of reason to rejoice. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Throughout history, steep declines in consumer sentiment have often been followed by strong stock market rallies over the next year, making these sentiment lows a potentially reliable indicator of upcoming gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Even with average intra-year drops of 14.1%, the S&P 500 achieved positive annual returns in 34 out of the past 45 years, highlighting the importance of staying invested through market volatility. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Post-election years typically bring strong market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 18%, with positive returns in 90% of cases. The real concern, however, lies in the year that follows. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Image: Carson Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of July has consistently been a seasonally strong period for the S&P 500, making it the best half-month of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns compared to investing at random days. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The combination of strong earnings growth, a more favorable geopolitical environment, and supportive technical indicators has led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since January 2022, European banks have outperformed U.S. mega-cap tech stocks—a notable achievement considering the longstanding dominance of American tech giants in global markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Bulls have reason to smile: historically, July has been the best month in post-election years and over the past 20 years. This suggests there is further upside potential ahead. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Returns The S&P 500’s risk-adjusted return in 2025 has been disappointing so far, reflecting a challenging market environment characterized by increased volatility and lower-than-average returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research