Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks, as investors push for greater compensation to stay exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1-Month Rolling Correlation of 10-Year UST Yield Change and S&P 500 Returns Since the start of the Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasuries have struggled to play their traditional diversification role. The one-month rolling correlation between 10-year yields and equitie returns has sunk to a multi-decade low. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Goldman’s Momentum Factor has jumped over 25% in the past three months. Moves like this are rare, only 11 since 1980. The historical playbook points to consolidation, not a top. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher,…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a slightly slower growth outlook. Relative performance between cyclical and defensive sectors points to roughly 1.5% U.S. real GDP growth, below Goldman Sachs’ 1.9% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that pace. That’s definitely not a “normal” earnings season. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years may bring thinner returns. These are exceptional businesses, but price matters. Even the strongest names can disappoint if you pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stocks tend to lose some of their edge over the summer, with May to October often lagging the stronger November to April period. Even so, seasonality is a guide, not a guarantee. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned just 1.7% from May to October, versus more than 7% from November to April. When the market hits May near record highs, that already weak stretch has tended to get weaker. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors stomach drawdowns of around 14% a year, but the S&P 500 has still climbed in 35 of the past 46. That turbulence is part of the deal for long-term returns. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management