S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes at the current level, US equities went on to deliver negative real returns, averaging roughly −2.6% a year. Image: Real…
S&P 500 – 10 Best September Returns Ever September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, but midterm election years have delivered some of the strongest Septembers on record. All four of the best September returns ever occurred in midterm years. Image: Carson Investment Research
Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar softness, and a shifting Fed narrative. Image: Deutsche Bank
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Call it the September drag. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has lost an average 0.7% in the month and finished higher in just 46% of Septembers. Can the market defy the script in 2026? Image: Topdown Charts
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is already up 3%. Do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s valuation levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Going back to 1950, the S&P 500’s first half of September ranks as the sixth-weakest half-month in the annual cycle, a seasonally weak period for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image: Real Investment Advice
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years. Welcome to the cost of long-term alpha in semis. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not an economic boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives implies roughly 2.4% US real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is now sitting at a Shiller CAPE level that has only shown up during the market’s priciest episodes. History points to real annualized returns in the -3.8% to -1.4% range over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice