S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished higher in 35 of the past 46 years. That’s the price investors pay for long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset…
S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish means consistently betting against a three-in-four odds of positive return. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns October has a strong track record in midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain since 1950 and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. With investors already leaning bearish, that seasonal tailwind could help fuel a year-end rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections U.S. stocks often stall before midterm elections, with volatility picking up, but returns tend to strengthen after the vote as policy uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
5-Year Rolling Return of U.S. 10-Year Bonds Five-year rolling returns on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are now among the worst in a century, both before and after inflation. Much of the damage was done in the 2022 rate-hiking cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge in risk appetite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – September Average Monthly Return Since 1928, September has been the only month to post an average loss, falling 1.1%, or 1.5% in midterm years. Its second half also contains the calendar’s weakest two-week stretch. Could history repeat? Image: Real Investment Advice
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities priced for perfection, the next five years deliver slimmer returns. The businesses are exceptional, but price still matters. Even great stocks can disappoint when investors pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management