Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 98th percentile, leaving them nearly max long with little firepower left to fuel another wave of buying. That makes them vulnerable if volatility spikes. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but it is a warning worth monitoring. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the bull market still has momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index Stocks remain sensitive to every move in yields, but falling rate volatility could clear a path higher for the S&P 500, even with interest rates still elevated. Image: The Daily Shot
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up controlling Congress and how that reshapes taxes, regulation and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Single-stock volatility in the S&P 500 has eased from July’s extremes but remains above its long-term average, while index volatility is still relatively calm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can extend, but it also heightens the risk of a more abrupt downside if that leadership falters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Volatility – VIX and SKEW Index The VIX–SKEW divergence is less about calm and more about caution. Volatility looks subdued, but the steady rise in SKEW suggests investors are quietly paying up for protection against a downside shock. Image: Real Investment Advice
Volatility – VIX Index The VIX dropping below 20 signals fading market jitters and a steadier tone, typically a tailwind for equities as calmer volatility expectations often accompany rising stock prices. Lower volatility tends to invite buyers back in. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 and Cross-Asset Volatility Stress Rising cross-asset volatility often signals growing fragility in U.S. equities. It is a cautionary signal, not a call on an imminent crash. It’s more of a yellow flag than a red one. Image: Bloomberg