Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928

Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The VIX’s historical pattern of rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to the elections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration

Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.1 trillion in options notional today could potentially lead to increased market movements and volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Volatility – VIX Level

Volatilty – VIX Level The VIX tends to rise approximately one month before election day as investors seek safety amidst the uncertainty surrounding the election, reflecting their growing concerns about market volatility and potential political outcomes. Image: J.P. Morgan

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The decrease in UST bond market volatility is viewed positively as it signals a more stable and predictable investment environment, benefiting both individual investors and the broader economy. Image: The Daily Shot

Treasury Volatility – MOVE Index

Treasury Volatility – MOVE Index The decrease in U.S. rates volatility, as indicated by the MOVE index, could be viewed as a positive development for both the bond market and the overall economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Asset Allocation

MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index

MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The cooling of U.S. rates volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, can be seen as a positive development for the bond market and the broader economy. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics

Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE

Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research

VIX – Volatility Index

VIX – Volatility Index While a low VIX may signal a relatively stable market environment, it can also indicate complacency or a lack of concern among market participants regarding potential risks. Image: BofA Global Research

Volatility – VIX

Volatility – VIX Volatility remains low, typically indicative of bull markets, during which stock prices tend to experience steady increases with fewer significant price fluctuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Realized Volatility During Recession

S&P 500 Realized Volatility During Recession During recessions, there is often increased uncertainty and risk aversion among investors, which can lead to higher levels of volatility in the U.S. stock market. Image: BofA Global Research