Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.9tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option exercise and settlement. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since 2023, reflecting heightened uncertainty and broader financial instability. Image: The Daily Shot
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Three-Month 90/110 Implied Volatility Signs of stability are emerging in the S&P 500 Index after the sharp correction, as traders abandon bets on further significant declines, reflecting growing confidence in the market. Image: Bloomberg
Volatility – Return vs. VIX While a higher VIX indicates increased market uncertainty, it can also present opportunities for investors to achieve better average returns by strategically navigating the volatility. Image: Alpine Macro
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high S&P 500 volatility regime has increased, suggesting that elevated volatility could persist throughout 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX – Volatility Indexes The current low volatility environment is likely temporary, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on inexpensive volatility levels to protect equity positions. Image: Bloomberg
VIX – Volatility Index While the current low VIX suggests investors are feeling as calm as a cat in a sunbeam, it also serves as a warning about potential future volatility if market conditions shift unexpectedly. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
VIX Index and S&P 500 Realized Volatility The spread between the VIX and the S&P 10-day realized volatility, when in the 98th percentile, may signal a potential opportunity for U.S. stocks to rally towards the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Volatility The concentration of large-cap stocks has significantly impacted market volatility, with these stocks accounting for a record share of it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research