Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration $5.3 trillion in options notional value is set to expire today, marking the largest September expiration on record. This could spark increased market volatility as trading activity intensifies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annualized 1-Month Volatility In this post-election year, the current period indicates increased volatility ahead for U.S. stocks, reinforcing the need for cautious risk management during this sensitive stage of the cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index The MOVE index, indicating the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options, has recently reached its highest level since 2023, reflecting heightened uncertainty and broader financial instability. Image: The Daily Shot
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Three-Month 90/110 Implied Volatility Signs of stability are emerging in the S&P 500 Index after the sharp correction, as traders abandon bets on further significant declines, reflecting growing confidence in the market. Image: Bloomberg
Volatility – Return vs. VIX While a higher VIX indicates increased market uncertainty, it can also present opportunities for investors to achieve better average returns by strategically navigating the volatility. Image: Alpine Macro
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high S&P 500 volatility regime has increased, suggesting that elevated volatility could persist throughout 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX – Volatility Index While the current low VIX suggests investors are feeling as calm as a cat in a sunbeam, it also serves as a warning about potential future volatility if market conditions shift unexpectedly. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management