S&P 500 Annualized 1-Month Volatility In this post-election year, the current period indicates increased volatility ahead for U.S. stocks, reinforcing the need for cautious risk management during this sensitive stage of the cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg
VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Three-Month 90/110 Implied Volatility Signs of stability are emerging in the S&P 500 Index after the sharp correction, as traders abandon bets on further significant declines, reflecting growing confidence in the market. Image: Bloomberg
Volatility – Return vs. VIX While a higher VIX indicates increased market uncertainty, it can also present opportunities for investors to achieve better average returns by strategically navigating the volatility. Image: Alpine Macro
Average Probability S&P 500 Volatility Regime The probability of a high S&P 500 volatility regime has increased, suggesting that elevated volatility could persist throughout 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VIX – Volatility Index While the current low VIX suggests investors are feeling as calm as a cat in a sunbeam, it also serves as a warning about potential future volatility if market conditions shift unexpectedly. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MOVE – U.S. Treasury Volatility Index The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasury options, has surged to its highest level since January 2024, signaling potential shifts in broader financial markets. Image: Bloomberg
VIX Index and S&P 500 Realized Volatility The spread between the VIX and the S&P 10-day realized volatility, when in the 98th percentile, may signal a potential opportunity for U.S. stocks to rally towards the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research