Small Caps Debt-to-Equity Exceeds Large Caps

Small Caps Debt-to-Equity Exceeds Large Caps The debt-to-equity ratio of small caps exceeds large caps for the first time. Picture source: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap

Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks and Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Around first rate cut, when growth stocks and large-cap stocks outperform, it does not suggest a recession is coming. Picture source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Expected Fed Funds Rate

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of October 11, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.25%. Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator)

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. Core CPI (Leading Indicator) Annual core CPI in September remained steady at 2.4% . This chart suggests that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index leads U.S. Core CPI by 24 months. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index” and “U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months.“…

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator)

U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) This chart shows the U.S. core CPI expected over the next 21 months. It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. The chart suggests that M2 velocity year-over-year leads U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.61 since 1996). You may also…

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar

Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar History tells us that the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 could go higher, and the yield curve could stay inverted until mid-2020. Picture source: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Picture to Enlarge

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Picture to Enlarge