NFIB Small Business Availability Loans vs. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Weak credit conditions, particularly when interest rates are high, can slow down the overall economy, leading to higher unemployment rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index has fallen to 88.5, a level linked with recessions. This decline is concerning as it suggests small business owners are less optimistic about their businesses and the economy. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index High interest rates and inflation have dampened small businesses’ optimism. However, the anticipation of rate cuts and economic improvements may boost sentiment going forward. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Real Business Investment While some companies have demonstrated high levels of capital expenditure in the United States, the overall trend remains modest since the 2020 recession. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Net % Bank Easing Standards for Small Business vs. NFIB Small Business Optimism Tighter lending standards have an impact on small business optimism. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – ISM Services Business Prices vs. Copper The rise of copper prices is a cause for concern as it can lead to higher prices for a variety of goods and services. Image: Steno Research
U.S. Business Cycle – Cross-Asset Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s U.S. cycle indicator has moved into the downturn phase. Should investors favor fixed income over equities? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Net Margin and NFIB Small Business Survey: Demand vs. Wage Cost Composite (Leading Indicator) Is there a risk of further decline in S&P 500 margins? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy CEO confidence continues to deteriorate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NFIB Small Business Sentiment U.S. small business sentiment is a recessionary warning. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy