Keyword: U.S. PMI

U.S. Excess Liquidity Leads U.S. PMI This chart suggests that U.S. excess liquidity leads U.S. PMI by 12 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Exane BNP Paribas

Global Manufacturing PMI and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that improving global sentiment drives U.S. 10-year Treasury yields higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

U.S. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that ISM indices imply a slowdown rather than a recession. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart showing the large divergence between U.S. cyclicals/defensives and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Eventually, the gap should close soon. Image: Topdown Charts

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust

Markit PMIs Composite and U.S. Real GDP Growth October PMIs suggest a modest U.S. real GDP growth. Image: Danske Bank

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 (contraction) in September, while the Markit Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.1 (expansion). Image: Renaissance Macro

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global

Global PMI vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The chart suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield should be below 1.5%. Image: Pervalle Global