U.S. Excess Liquidity Leads U.S. PMI

U.S. Excess Liquidity Leads U.S. PMI This chart suggests that U.S. excess liquidity leads U.S. PMI by 12 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back in 2020. Image: Exane BNP Paribas

U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI

U.S. Cyclicals/Defensives vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart showing the large divergence between U.S. cyclicals/defensives and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Eventually, the gap should close soon. Image: Topdown Charts

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome

ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP Chart showing the correlation between the U.S. ISM PMI Composite Index and U.S. real GDP. The service sector is still expanding. Image: Oxford Economics

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global