U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.77%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Over the past year, U.S. investors have favored bonds and money market funds over riskier equities, with geopolitical tensions hanging over markets and interest rates staying elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Global Equities Returns Depending on Absolute Moves in U.S. 10-Year Yieldss Big moves in bond yields rarely go unnoticed by equities. A rapid rise in yields can act as a red flag for stocks, as investors push for greater compensation to stay exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is rolling over again, and while not yet negative, it is already pointing to a tougher backdrop for U.S. equities in the months ahead. When liquidity fades, equity markets rarely stay smooth for long. Image: Bloomberg
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Net Margin Debt U.S. margin debt is hovering near record highs. That level of borrowing reflects strong risk appetite, but it also leaves the market more exposed to sharp pullbacks if stocks slide and leveraged investors rush to cut positions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.05% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is sticking with the U.S. growth call, projecting the economy will hold at 2.1% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by tax cuts, looser financial conditions, and easing tariff pressure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.73. Investor positioning has pulled back from extreme greed, but speculative positioning remains elevated. That leaves markets more vulnerable to a reversal. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite is running high. The Nasdaq 100 now trades at 27 times forward earnings, the Russell 2000 at 26, and the S&P 500 at 21. The market is still positioned for further gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard