U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History

U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History The S&P 500’s forward P/E of about 22x suggests optimism; however, it also points to greater risk, since the market is increasingly sensitive to any earnings shortfalls or macroeconomic challenges ahead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Household Net Worth as % of Disposal Personal Income

U.S. Household Net Worth as % of Disposal Personal Income In the U.S., the household net worth-to-income ratio is nearing historic highs, driven mainly by soaring stock and home values. Yet, wealth gains from the AI boom have largely favored the richest, intensifying the wealth gap. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator

U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance For the first time since January 2025, U.S. equity investors’ risk appetite turned positive in July, fueled by stronger confidence in both fundamentals and the macroeconomic landscape. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence

U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average

U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average The DXY dollar’s current position well below its 200-day moving average marks a rare bearish phase, the likes of which have not been seen in two decades, signaling a challenging environment for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Image: Bloomberg

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 83.84, the Market Greed/Fear Index signals extreme greed in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about overconfidence. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.19% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…