Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -5.01% YoY in November. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Performance of U.S. vs. Rest of World Equities Investing in U.S. corporations is like betting on a horse that always finishes the race—sure, it might stumble, but it usually crosses the finish line ahead of the pack! Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
Flows into U.S. Equity ETFs and Mutual Funds Looks like U.S. equities hit the jackpot over the last month with $141 billion flooding in—who knew the stock market could gain such popularity? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Spreads Having tight credit spreads is like being on a rollercoaster with no safety bar—looks fun until you realize you should’ve paid more attention! Image: Bloomberg
Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Effective Tariff Rate The economic effects of tariffs in the U.S. are significant, with each 1% increase in the effective tariff rate leading to a 0.1% rise in prices and a 0.05% decrease in GDP. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs predicts a 15% chance of a U.S. recession in the next one year—much like the chances of sticking to a New Year’s resolution! Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China Tech Stocks As the U.S. market experiences an AI frenzy, China’s major technology stocks struggle, reflecting investor pessimism towards China’s economic revival efforts and concerns about AI monetization and trade restrictions. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales fell in October to 390K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge