U.S. Core CPI Inflation

U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard

U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator

U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…

Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration

Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.9tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option exercise and settlement. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects U.S. real GDP will expand at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q2 2025, marking a strong rebound in economic activity from the previous quarter’s contraction. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index While the easing of U.S. financial conditions bodes well for economic growth—by supporting consumers and businesses—ongoing attention to inflation risks is still required. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds

U.S. Stocks Relative to Bonds U.S. stocks are at their strongest relative to bonds since Trump’s inauguration, supported by persistent risk appetite and the perception of U.S. market resilience amid global uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Net Margin Debt

U.S. Net Margin Debt So far, U.S. margin debt as a share of market capitalization remains elevated, which reflects ongoing confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In May, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash

U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash Americans’ love for stocks has driven household equity allocations to historic highs, increasing wealth but also sparking concerns about market stability and the risks of shifting investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research