U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell — and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing up just 0.06%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Rolling 90-Day Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. IG Credit Spreads Credit and equities are back in sync: the 90‑day correlation between U.S. IG credit spreads and the S&P 500 has spiked, a sign that macro forces and market mood now bind the two tighter than before. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite is back. For the second straight month, U.S. equity fund managers are tilting bullish, encouraged by looser central-bank policy and easing macro jitters — even as valuation risks and political noise linger. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Share Buyback Announcements Bulls are right to smile: At $6–7 billion a day through year-end, U.S. corporate buybacks are the market’s invisible hand—lifting prices and muting every attempt at a selloff. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Returns It’s not a bubble—at least not yet. But with AI money flooding in and U.S. companies rethinking how they raise and spend cash, investors can’t afford to ignore valuations, balance sheets, or results. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Equity Fund Flow by Calendar Month Over the Past Decade Excluding U.S. Election Years History says year-end momentum has legs: outside U.S. election years, equity flows spike in December and stay strong through Q1—adding weight to the case for retail strength through early 2026. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At a Greed and Fear Index reading of 70.36, investors see pullbacks as buying invitations, not red flags — a sign of broad optimism and a taste for risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Valuations haven’t blinked. The S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, the Nasdaq 100 at 29 — investors are betting big on the next earnings leg, led by tech and AI heavyweights. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio High P/E ratios in U.S. tech stocks cut both ways — they highlight the sector’s strong growth prospects but also the danger of valuations inflated by unbridled investor optimism. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Labor Productivity A pandemic-driven productivity surge has put U.S. real output per hour 1.7% above its previous trajectory, providing tailwinds to economic performance and keeping the American growth story alive and well. Image: Deutsche Bank