U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.58%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements AI spending is grabbing attention, but buybacks are fueling the rally on Wall Street. U.S. companies have authorized a record $1.141 trillion in repurchases this year, providing strong support for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 56.28, the Greed and Fear Index remains in neutral territory, far from panic or euphoria. If markets hold steady through earnings season, investors could get a window to add exposure in the weeks ahead. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History U.S. stocks are expensive, but investors are buying anyway: the Nasdaq 100 trades at 23 times forward earnings, the Russell 2000 at 22 times and the S&P 500 at 19 times.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.61% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of a meaningful U.S. slowdown, forecasting growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, as a resilient labor market continues to support activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S.-Listed ETF Cumulative Flows by Year More than $1.5 trillion has flowed into U.S.-listed ETFs so far this year, a record for this point in the calendar. If the buying continues, inflows could reach $2.3 trillion by year-end, according to model-based projections. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The message from markets is steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.3% real GDP growth in the U.S., broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 2.0% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.62%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg