U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Even after the recent sell-off, tech and S&P 500 valuations continue to be high relative to historical standards, leading to uncertainty about their future performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Surprise Index A declining U.S. Economic Surprise Index, caused by economic data consistently underperforming expectations, can negatively impact equity performance. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In February, building permits in the U.S. rose to 1.456 million, exceeding expectations. Historically, they tend to peak and then decline before economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Excluding the effects of the equity market downturn, U.S. financial conditions demonstrate resilience, suggesting a favorable environment for economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In February, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.28% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quater U.S. GDP Growth The U.S. stock market’s reaction suggests investors may be anticipating even weaker economic performance than the lowered growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and other institutions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index With a value of 48.91, the Market Greed/Fear Index indicates neutral sentiment, highlighting a balance between investor fear and greed. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Probability of U.S. Recession As Priced Across Asset Classes Concerns over tariffs and potential layoffs are driving up the likelihood of a U.S. recession. Investors are reflecting this sentiment, with the S&P 500 pointing to a 33% chance of economic downturn. Analysts often use the current percentage change in the S&P 500 index to gauge…
Inflation – U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Rate The declining U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate indicates that market participants expect inflation to moderate, aligning with the Fed’s 2% long-term target. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Investors continue to show a strong appetite for U.S. money market funds as a safe and attractive option amid ongoing market volatility and high short-term interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research