S&P 500 Performance After a >10% Quarter Since 1950, when a quarter’s return exceeds 10%, the next quarter typically performs better than average—gaining 4.7% on average compared to the overall average of 2.3%, and posting gains 85% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up between 5% and 10% by mid-year, the full-year performance has been positive 93% of the time, with an average annual return close to 14%, giving bulls ample reason to remain optimistic. Image: Carson…
S&P 500 Performance While the S&P 500 is on track for a third consecutive monthly gain, supported by strong earnings expectations, some investors remain cautious about its sustainability given high valuations and geopolitical uncertainties. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 The 2025 market exhibits a favorable pattern: a negative Q1 followed by a strong Q2 rebound of over 10%. Historically, Q3 has consistently risen by an average of 7.7%, and the rest of the year has seen an average increase of 15.9%. Image:…
S&P 500 Performance After Green in Both May and June Since 1988, when the S&P 500 gains in both May and June—a rare bullish sign—the rest of the year rose 15 of 16 times, averaging 8.8% gains, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment for the year’s second half. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains There’s very good news for bulls: Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has gained more than 5% in May, it has historically been higher 12 months later, with an average increase of 19.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After at Least 15 Weeks of AAII Bears over Bulls Ends A streak of 15 consecutive weeks with more bears than bulls in the AAII survey is rare—only four other periods have lasted this long. In each case, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 27.5%.…
S&P 500 Performance After >19% in 27 Trading Days This is more than just another bear market rally, as the S&P 500 has jumped over 19% in 27 trading days. Historically, since 1950, similar rallies have averaged a 32% gain one year later, with positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 In the absence of recession, short-lived market drawdowns are often followed by strong recoveries, offering attractive returns to investors who stay the course rather than selling in panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After >58% of Components Make a New 20-Day High More good news for bulls: Since 1976, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 18.7% in the 12 months after more than 58% of its components hit a 20-day high, with positive returns every single time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 U.S. equities have experienced one of the sharpest drawdowns in the past 75 years. Historically, such sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research