Seasonality – 2019 S&P 500 Performance by Month vs. the 1980-2018 Average This year, the S&P 500 seasonality looked different than its historical pattern since 1980. Image: CNBC
S&P 500 Performance 12-Months After ISM Manufacturing Index Below 50 for Four Months Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied 12-months later, 80% of the time, after the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50 for four months, with an average return of 12%. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
S&P 500 Performance During Past Recessions In recent history, the median S&P 500 performance during past recessions (peak to trough) is -24% Image: Barclays Research
S&P 500 Performance Comparison – January-October vs. November-December Historically, when the S&P 500 has gained 20% from the January to October, the November-December return has been positive. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Average S&P 500 Performance Following 3rd Fed Rate Cut In the Fed rate cutting cycle, the chart shows the average S&P 500 performance following a 3rd Fed rate cut, with less than two additional cuts, and two or more additional cuts. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 Performance When Market Is Up 17% Through Oct. 15 When the S&P 500 is up 17% through October 15, the average gain through year-end is 3.1%, 82% of time since 1930. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 Performance Leading to U.S. Election Date This table shows that over the last 20 election cycles in the U.S., there have been only two instances of market declines in the 12 months leading to the election results. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Performance When the First Two Rate Cuts Are 25 Basis Points Over 40 years, the S&P 500 returns over 6 and 12 months were all positive when the first two rate cuts were 25 bps. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Performance and Yield Curve Inversions Past yield curve inversions preceded top in SPX by about 11 months. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This chart shows the S&P 500 performance across different presidencies, from Reagan to Trump. Image: Deutsche Bank