Supply Disruption Index vs. U.S. Core CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Is U.S. core CPI inflation finally peaking? The supply disruption index tends to lead U.S. core CPI inflation by one month. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – Supply Chain Disruption/Backlog Composite Surging searches for supply chain disruption and backlogs could lead to inflation risks. Image: Topdown Charts
How Long Do Americans See Coronavirus Disruption Lasting? 51% of Americans see coronavirus disruption lasting a few more months. Image: Statista
Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions Chart suggesting that supply chain disruptions have no material impact on inflation. Image: J.P. Morgan
Oil Market Disruption This chart suggests that “the oil market can cope with a larger Saudi disruption for several months.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Effects and Durations of 19 Oil Market Disruptions This table shows that disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: PKVerleger, LLC
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors moved past the selloff and priced in a lower risk of major disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Difference between Front-End Brent Crude Oil Futures and 6-Month Brent Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict will be short‑lived. Oil futures signal tight near‑term supply but confidence that disruptions will fade quickly. But markets tend to price in calm faster than reality delivers. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption will prove short‑lived. Image: Alpine Macro
Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research