Supply Disruption Index vs. U.S. Core CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Is U.S. core CPI inflation finally peaking? The supply disruption index tends to lead U.S. core CPI inflation by one month. Image: Alpine Macro
Inflation – Supply Chain Disruption/Backlog Composite Surging searches for supply chain disruption and backlogs could lead to inflation risks. Image: Topdown Charts
How Long Do Americans See Coronavirus Disruption Lasting? 51% of Americans see coronavirus disruption lasting a few more months. Image: Statista
Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions Chart suggesting that supply chain disruptions have no material impact on inflation. Image: J.P. Morgan
Oil Market Disruption This chart suggests that “the oil market can cope with a larger Saudi disruption for several months.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Effects and Durations of 19 Oil Market Disruptions This table shows that disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: PKVerleger, LLC
Real S&P 500 Index While geopolitical events can cause significant short-term market disruptions, their long-term impact is usually limited, and markets frequently rebound and continue their upward trajectory. Image: Real Investment Advice
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Prices – Biggest Weekly Jumps Fueled by a sudden escalation in Middle East conflict and concerns over major supply disruptions, Brent crude oil prices experienced one of their biggest weekly gains since 1988. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events While geopolitical events may cause short-term market disruptions, markets have historically shown resilience and recovered over time, especially beyond the usual 12-month tactical window. Image: Carson Investment Research