Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue throughout the year. Image: The Daily Shot
Lumber/WTI Crude Oil and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Leading Indicator) Slower economic growth is expected over the next 14 months. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Housing – U.S. Home Prices and Lumber Price Will the housing market boom continue, as U.S. home prices rise to seven-year high? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Total Return vs. Price of Lumber The surge in lumber prices suggests downside risk for bond prices. Image: BCA Research
Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings This chart suggests that lumber prices give a good forecast of where the stock market is going. When lumber prices fall over a 12-month period, then EPS follows 6 months later. Although there is no immediate recession on the horizon, a market downturn is possible. Image:…
MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg