Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. stocks still trading at lofty valuations, the next five years could bring slimmer returns. Great companies, yes! But not at great prices. Even the best businesses can disappoint if you overpay. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment Advice
5-Year Turnover of S&P 500 Constituents In a typical five-year stretch, about 20% of S&P 500 members turn over, a reminder of how tough it is to stay in the game for the long haul. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
25-Year Cumulative Return of S&P 500 over Gold Warren Buffett has a skeptical view of gold as an investment, but apparently, gold didn’t get the memo and has been outperforming the S&P 500 over the past 25 years! Image: Deutsche Bank
5-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bank Stocks Correlation The combination of higher bond yields and rising bank stocks is often often viewed as a sign of a bullish market environment. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Breakeven Rate U.S. bond market expectations for inflation are rising again, which is not good news. Image: The Daily Shot
Gold Price vs. U.S. 5-Year TIPS Yield Generally, when the U.S. 5-year TIPS yield goes up, gold tends to go down. Image: The Daily Shot
5-Year Rolling Correlation Between S&P 500 TTM EPS YoY vs. China Nominal GDP and U.S. Nominal GDP China’s economic growth slowdown suggests trouble ahead for the S&P 500. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Rates – Short Duration vs. Long Duration Indexed Relative to Basket Return and 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Real U.S. Treasury Yield Short vs. long duration tends to track the path of U.S. rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 5-Year/5-Year Forward TIPS Breakeven Inflation Rate and Fed’s Target Zone Is U.S. inflation still a risk? Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Pure Value/Pure Growth Index and 5-Year U.S. Treasury Breakeven Rate The 5-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate tends to drive the rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management