Emerging Market Price-to-Book and Subsequent 5-Year Returns This chart shows the correlation between EM price-to-book and subsequent 5-year returns, suggesting higher returns for emerging markets. Image: J.P. Morgan
The U.S. Dollar’s 15-Year Cycles The chart suggests that the cycle in U.S. dollar from peak to peak is about 15 years on average. Image: Financial Times
Brent 5-Year Futures Price This chart shows that long-dated oil prices stayed relatively flat after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Chinese 5-Year Benchmark Yield Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Great chart suggesting that the Chinese 5-year benchmark yield leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…
Greek’s 5-Year Bond Yields Have Fallen Below US 5-Year Government Bond Yield Which one would you choose? Greek bonds or US counterparts? This is a great example of financial market madness. Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” That’s true! Greece has spent around half its time in default on its…
Expected Real Return of U.S. Equities and U.S. Bond Over Next 5 Years This chart suggests a real return of around 5% p.a. on U.S. equities over the next 5 years vs. -5% for U.S. Treasury bonds. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
Baseline Equity Returns (5 Years) Chart suggesting that high market valuations will affect equity returns in the coming years. Image: Oxford Economics