Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can extend, but it also heightens the risk of a more abrupt downside if that leadership falters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
High Beta Relative to Low Volatility and Growth vs. Value The 2020 peak for Growth vs. Value does not equal the 2000 peak. Image: BofA Global Research Click the Image to Enlarge
Value Stocks – ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index vs. S&P 500 High Beta Index/S&P 500 Low Volatility Index Value stocks should benefit from an economic rebound, as the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is at a 17-year high. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Value Stocks vs. Low Volatility Stocks Chart showing the large divergence between value stocks and low volatility stocks, like never before. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Low Volatility Stocks Are the Best Performing Asset YTD This chart shows that S&P 500 low volatility stocks are the best performing asset year-to-date (outside of GSCI energy). Actually, high-quality stocks are a good way to protect against a weak economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – S&P 500 vs. 12-Month Count of Daily Changes of -1% or Lower Is this the end of the bear market, as volatility has peaked? Image: Topdown Charts
VIX – Volatility Index Seasonality of Spikes from Prior Month Low into Current Month Peak Historically, May-July tends to see decreased risk of VIX spikes. Image: BofA Global Research
Heightened Correlations to U.S. Treasury Implied Volatility (MOVE) Followed by Higher Yields This chart suggests that balanced portfolios could suffer as U.S. Treasury yields generally rise after heightened correlation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Volatility – VIX Index The VIX dropping below 20 signals fading market jitters and a steadier tone, typically a tailwind for equities as calmer volatility expectations often accompany rising stock prices. Lower volatility tends to invite buyers back in. Image: MarketDesk Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index With the MOVE index trending lower, U.S. rate volatility has cooled, which brings a dose of relief to bond desks and, by extension, the economy. It’s definitely a welcome breather for the markets. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 and Cross-Asset Volatility Stress Rising cross-asset volatility often signals growing fragility in U.S. equities. It is a cautionary signal, not a call on an imminent crash. It’s more of a yellow flag than a red one. Image: Bloomberg