U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in February to 451K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. Click the Image to Enlarge
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Is the disconnect between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy justified? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Small Business Sales U.S. small business sales have accelerated sharply, but how long will this last without more stimulus? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In February, U.S. real retail sales stand at 4.52% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Bubble Valuations – S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Information Technology Sector GICS Level 1 Index (Adjusted Price/Sales Ratio) The U.S. stock market looks expensive by historical standards. Is the price-to-sales ratio worrisome? Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Price, Sales, EPS and GDP S&P 500 profits have exceeded their pre-pandemic level. 4Q 2020 EPS came in 2% above 4Q 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Foreign Sales % by Year The S&P 500 is more global than 2-3 decades ago, as 30% of S&P 500 sales come from overseas. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise So far, the worst reactions for beats in history. The peak of the dotcom bubble saw similar reactions. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Return and Valuation – Stocks with EV/Sales Ratios Above 20x as Share of U.S. Equity Trading Volumes and Market Capitalization The median stock with an EV/sales ratio above 20x has generated a subsequent 12-month return of -1% since 1985. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Growth Stocks – FAANG and S&P 500 Ex-FAANG Price-to-Sales In general, higher rates mean headwind for growth stocks. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy