U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales fell in August to 512K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at -1.19% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales Higher payrolls can potentially lead to higher retail sales, as increased income for employees can result in greater purchasing power. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Price-to-Sales Ratio U.S. equities remain expensive by historical standards, despite the correction. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales S&P 500 profit margins remain strong at 11.2%, despite many headwinds and higher labor costs. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
NAR U.S. Pending Home Sales Index U.S. pending home sales dropped by 33.8% YoY in December. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Retail Sales Recent U.S. retail sales data shows that there is a slowdown in consumer spending, which can have a detrimental effect on the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Valuation – Russell 3000 Index, Percent of Constituents with Price/Sales Ratios Greater than 10 Measured by price to sales ratios, U.S. stocks are not cheap yet. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Existing Home Sales High mortgage rates do not bode well for existing home sales in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index Forward 12 Months Earnings Per Share and Sales Are U.S. stocks at risk of slipping further? Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share of $195 in 2023. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management