U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales decreased to 1.3% YoY, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in Q3 2019 to 560K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…

New Home Sales vs. Recessions

New Home Sales vs. Recessions Typically, a recession occurs when the annual change in New Home Sales declines by about 20%. This chart suggests that a recession from these levels would be surprising. Image: Calculated Risk

10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region

10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region The importance of remembering the past: this chart shows the steep decline in sales growth over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Corporate Bond Sales

Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Total Home Sales

U.S. Total Home Sales This year, lower mortgage rates could boost U.S. home sales in the fourth quarter. Image: Leonard Kiefer