U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In September, U.S. real retail sales at 3.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970

Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970 Rising inflation tends to boost S&P 500 earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, a 100bp increase in average annual core CPI would lift the S&P 500 EPS to $170 in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions

U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in August to 395K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”

Insiders Sales in U.S. Listed Companies

Insiders Sales in U.S. Listed Companies Last month, U.S. executives sold stocks in their own companies as the S&P 500 rallies on. This is the biggest burst of selling since 2015. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Headline Retail Sales

U.S. Headline Retail Sales U.S. retail sales look V-shaped, but can it last? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Housing Sales

U.S. Housing Sales U.S. housing sales are recovering from coronavirus, as builders have been reporting stronger demand. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond