U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy truck sales rose in March to 450K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In March, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.15% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales S&P 500’s profit margins for 2025 face significant risks from tariffs and rising import costs, which could undermine the current optimistic consensus forecasts. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The S&P 493 (S&P 500 ex-Magnificent Seven) faces lower global trade risks than the Magnificent Seven, which rely on nearly 50% foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth The growing disconnect between the U.S. stock market and real economy raises concerns about economic inequality, financial stability, policy challenges and sustainable growth. Image: Real Investment Advice
Recession – NFIB Sales Expectations Optimism among U.S. small business owners regarding future sales has significantly declined, with many anticipating a drop in revenues over the coming months. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Days Sales of Inventory The trough of the inventory de-stocking cycle often coincides with the beginning of a broader business recovery, characterized by rising demand, improved economic conditions, and increased production and sales. Image: BofA Global Research
Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales Over the past two years, real retail sales in the U.S. have remained weak, indicating a persistent sluggishness in consumer spending. Image: Real Investment Advice
1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise Companies that exceeded both sales and EPS expectations outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.4ppt the following day, which is the strongest performance since 4Q2018 and considerably higher than the historical average of 1.5ppt. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
G3 Real Core Retail Sales Since 2019, real core retail sales in the United States have risen significantly, while Germany has seen stagnant growth and Japan has witnessed a decline, reflecting differing economic conditions and consumer behaviors. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Labor Market – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Retail Sales Higher payrolls can potentially lead to higher retail sales, as increased income for employees can result in greater purchasing power. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy