Search Results for: sales

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.6% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth After years of Fed support, investors have been trained to buy every dip, a habit that has left U.S. markets running far ahead of economic reality. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge

Average 1-Day Price Reaction to Reported Sales and EPS This season, U.S. stocks are reacting with amplified negative price movements to Q2 earnings misses compared to typical patterns, due to elevated market expectations, valuation concerns, and low tolerance for disappointing results. Image: Yahoo Finance

Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are more exposed to global trade risks than the rest of the S&P 500, as 49% of their revenue comes from foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Recession – NFIB Sales Expectations Optimism among U.S. small business owners regarding future sales has significantly declined, with many anticipating a drop in revenues over the coming months. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 Days Sales of Inventory The trough of the inventory de-stocking cycle often coincides with the beginning of a broader business recovery, characterized by rising demand, improved economic conditions, and increased production and sales. Image: BofA Global Research

1-Day Post-Reporting Performance vs. S&P 500 on EPS and Sales Surprise Companies that exceeded both sales and EPS expectations outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.4ppt the following day, which is the strongest performance since 4Q2018 and considerably higher than the historical average of 1.5ppt. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

G3 Real Core Retail Sales Since 2019, real core retail sales in the United States have risen significantly, while Germany has seen stagnant growth and Japan has witnessed a decline, reflecting differing economic conditions and consumer behaviors. Image: BofA Global Research