Housing – U.S. Existing Home Sales and 30-Year Mortgage Rate This chart shows the correlation between U.S. existing home sales and the 30-year mortgage rate (inverted), and suggests further improvements in sales. Image : Piper Sandler Companies
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In December, U.S. real retail sales at 3.5% YoY, and the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales declined in November to 462K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
Ecommerce as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales in the U.S. U.S. retail e-commerce sales now account for 11 percent of total sales. Image: Financial Times
Gold Price and Central Bank Gold Sales & Purchases Chart suggesting that gold purchases from central banks have contributed to the rise in gold prices. An R² of 0.85 (since 2004) is quite high and significant. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Global Employment and Global Real Retail Sales Chart suggesting that the slowdown in global employment is expected to impact global real retail sales. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Small Business Sales Expectations and Nominal U.S. GDP Growth Chart showing the correlation between U.S. small business sales expectations and nominal U.S. GDP growth, and the impact of small businesses to the U.S. economy. Image: Blackstone
Global Semiconductor Sales vs. MSCI World EPS Growth Chart suggesting that global semiconductor sales may have bottomed. That’s good news for global EPS growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
U.S. New Heavy Truck Sales Lead U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that U.S. new heavy truck sales lead the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…