U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In October, U.S. real retail sales decreased to 1.3% YoY, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Small Business Sales Expectations and Nominal U.S. GDP Growth Chart showing the correlation between U.S. small business sales expectations and nominal U.S. GDP growth, and the impact of small businesses to the U.S. economy. Image: Blackstone
U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales rose in Q3 2019 to 560K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
Global Semiconductor Sales vs. MSCI World EPS Growth Chart suggesting that global semiconductor sales may have bottomed. That’s good news for global EPS growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
U.S. New Heavy Truck Sales Lead U.S. Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that U.S. new heavy truck sales lead the U.S. unemployment rate by 7 months. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…
New Home Sales vs. Recessions Typically, a recession occurs when the annual change in New Home Sales declines by about 20%. This chart suggests that a recession from these levels would be surprising. Image: Calculated Risk
10-Year Rolling Average Sales Growth by Region The importance of remembering the past: this chart shows the steep decline in sales growth over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times
U.S. Total Home Sales This year, lower mortgage rates could boost U.S. home sales in the fourth quarter. Image: Leonard Kiefer
