U.S. Interest Rates – Velocity of MZM Money Stock and Natural Rate of Interest Should investors expect low interest rates for a long period of time? This chart helps to explain the secular trend for U.S. interest rates. Image: Fidelity Investments
Core Consumer Price Inflation vs. Velocity of Money There are downside risks to U.S. inflation, as velocity of money tends to lead U.S. core CPI. Image: BCA Research
Demographics – U.S. Money Velocity and Population Growth The population of 20-54s will start to increase and could therefore lead to higher money velocity. Image: Longview Economics
U.S. Core Inflation Expected Over the Next 21 Months (Leading Indicator) M2 velocity year-over-year tends to lead U.S. core CPI by 21 months (R² = 0.53 since 1996). It has been quite accurate for more than 20 years. Click the Image to Enlarge
Valuation – S&P 500 Market Capitalization to GDP vs. S&P 500 Market Capitalization to M2 This chart puts market valuations into perspective, as the massive collapse in the velocity of money has led the Fed to print money. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
The Secular Trend for U.S. Interest Rates This nice chart shows the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield against the natural rate (nominal R-Star) and monetary velocity. In a sense, it explains the secular trend for U.S. interest rates. Image: Fidelity Investments
How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…
Where Does Inflation Come From? Mainly inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Over the long term, Nominal GDP = Money Supply x Velocity of Money = Inflation + Real Economic Growth “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” –Milton Friedman. You…