10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook for the high-yield bond market over the next 12 months, anticipating that high-yield spreads will tighten, driven by robust economic conditions and optimistic investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has often been an early warning sign of an upcoming recession in the United States. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value According to BofA’s macroeconomic framework, the fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is estimated to be between 4.25% and 4.3%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart Technical analysis suggests that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decline by the end of 2024, with a potential target between 3.50% and 3.29%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve The inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve, which has accurately predicted every U.S. recession in the past, remains a cause for concern. Could this time be an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX Low high-yield credit spreads and a low VIX may suggest market positivity, but the lack of fear or volatility can paradoxically create a sense of complacency among investors, causing them to overlook potential risks. Image: Topdown Charts
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 57.8% in July. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart In a soft landing scenario, BofA forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to 3.78% in 2H24-1H25. It may potentially drop further to 3.22% and then reach 3.00%. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been in a secular bear market since February 2022, and it could potentially approach 6% in the coming years. Image: BofA Global Research