Change in U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields and S&P 500 Following 2016 Election Results Goldman Sachs expects U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to increase under unified Democratic control of government, reflecting the possibility of a substantial increase in government spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Spreads A breakthrough in the 200-day moving average has historically been bullish for high yield. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap The S&P 500 equity risk premium remains high at 6% and above its historical average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation Expectations vs. Treasury Yields The relationship between Treasury yields and inflation expectations has broken down. Image: Credit Suisse
Quantitative Easing (QE) and Bond Yields Bond yields tend to move higher after QE starts. So far, however, QE seems to have a different effect on the bond market. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 10-year U.S. Treasury yields tend to move with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, but the disconnect persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Correlation – MSCI U.S. Tech Relative vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield This chart suggests the good correlation between tech relative and U.S. 10-year bond yields (inverted). Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 20.8% in August. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Yield Curve – Difference 5-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields The yield curve steepens after the Fed pivot. Are Gold prices at risk? Image: Financial Times
Yield Curve and U.S. Real GDP Growth – Broad-Based Recovery in 2021 The current steepening of the yield curve suggests a long road to recovery Image: Alpine Macro