High Yield Spreads – Implied Default Ratio vs. Moody’s Forecast High-yield spreads suggest a severe recession similar to the global financial crisis. Default ratio at 16.1% (12m). Image: Swedbank Research
Real Yield on U.S. Corporate Bond IG & HY vs. Equity Earnings Yield Real yields on U.S. corporate bonds (IG & HY) exceed equity earnings yield Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. High-Yield vs. Investment-Grade and MSCI ACWI ex-US (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the ratio of high-yield to investment-grade bond performance is a leading indicator for stocks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Percent of Yield Curves Inverted In recent history, U.S. recessions were preceded by yield curve inversion. It’s not different this time. Image: Macrobond Financial
Sensitivity of the 2020 S&P 500 Price Targets to the Yield Gap Goldman Sachs expects the yield gap to narrow by year-end 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Energy and Exploration & Production as Proportion of High Yield Is a market carnage coming? Energy accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. high-yield market, with a share of about 14%. Image: Deutsche Bank
% of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividend Yields Greater than the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 78% of S&P 500 stocks have a dividend yield greater than the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Image: Strategas Research Partners
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Less 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Goldman Sachs expects the yield gap will narrow to 395 bp by the end of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Austria Century Bond Yield Austria century bond yield plunges as coronavirus fears intensify. Image: Bloomberg
High Yield Spread to Worst Is the panic over for high-yield bond investors, as global coronavirus fears intensify? Image: J.P. Morgan