U.S. 10-Year Yield and U.S. 10-Year TIPS Breakeven So far, the U.S. 10-year yield and the U.S. 10-year TIPS breakeven continue to follow the historical pattern after global recoveries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Corporate High Yield Bonds and U.S. CPI Currently, U.S. high yield bonds no longer compensate for U.S. inflation. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Inflation – Real Estate Real Dividend Yield vs. TIPS Real Yield Real estate real dividend yields remain attractive relative to TIPS real yields. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Sensitivity of S&P 500 to U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) The 4700 year-end target for the S&P 500 index assumes ERP of 4.8% and U.S. Treasury yield at 1.6%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Growth Stocks – One-Year Correlation: 10-Year US Treasury Yield/MSCI Value Index vs. 10-Year US Treasury Yield/MSCI Growth Index U.S growth stocks are currently highly correlated with U.S. bond yields, as they were during the dotcom bubble. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Equity Risk Premium – 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Government Bond Yield The Equity Risk Premium has increased over the last few months. Image: BCA Research
U.S. 10-Year Yields and U.S. Dollar – Reaction to Global Recoveries Since 1970 So far, the U.S. 10-year yield and the U.S. dollar continue to follow the historical pattern after global recoveries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. High Yield – % $HY Negative Real Yield How long will U.S. junk bonds with negative real yields last? Image: Deutsche Bank
Performance – COVID-19 Reopening vs. Lockdown Portfolio and U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield The coronavirus pandemic is highly correlated with yields and relative asset price performance Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Equity Implied Volatility and Credit High Yield Spreads U.S. equity implied volatility remains at relatively high levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research