U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs anticipates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 3.85% by the end of 2024, a forecast that notably diverges from futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve The recent un-inversion of the 2s10s Treasury yield curve may indicate a positive outlook for U.S. stocks, especially if economic stability and growth persist. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and U.S. High Yield OAS The new cycle low in the U.S. high yield option-adjusted spread is seen as a promising signal for the S&P 500, supporting bullish expectations as we approach the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research
Weekly High Yield Fund Flows Over the past week, U.S. high-yield funds experienced their largest outflow in nine weeks, signaling a shift in investor sentiment towards lower-risk assets. Image: BofA Global Research
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The rise in yields is confirming the relative strength of U.S. cyclical stocks as they respond positively to favorable economic indicators while U.S. defensive stocks face pressure. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Spread Between BBB-Rated Corporate Bond Yield and 90-Day U.S. Treasury Bill Yield The recent increase in the spread between IG credit yield and cash yield marks a significant shift from a 43-year low. Should investors favor U.S. Treasury bills over IG bonds? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 and U.S. 2s-10s Yield Curve Since the late 1950s, 10 of the last 12 yield curve steepening cycles have coincided with U.S. recessions, highlighting the yield curve’s effectiveness as a predictor of economic downturns. Image: BofA Global Research
High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Goldman Sachs forecasts a favorable high-yield bond market over the next 12 months, anticipating tighter spreads as a result of robust economic conditions and optimistic investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value BofA’s macroeconomic framework estimates the fair value of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to be between 4.10% and 4.15%, with a year-end target of 3.75%. Image: BofA Global Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 59.8% in September. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland