10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Macro Fair Value According to BofA’s macroeconomic framework, the fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is estimated to be between 4.25% and 4.3%. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart

U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart Technical analysis suggests that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decline by the end of 2024, with a potential target between 3.50% and 3.29%. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve The inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve, which has accurately predicted every U.S. recession in the past, remains a cause for concern. Could this time be an exception? Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX Low high-yield credit spreads and a low VIX may suggest market positivity, but the lack of fear or volatility can paradoxically create a sense of complacency among investors, causing them to overlook potential risks. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Weekly Chart In a soft landing scenario, BofA forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to decline to 3.78% in 2H24-1H25. It may potentially drop further to 3.22% and then reach 3.00%. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been in a secular bear market since February 2022, and it could potentially approach 6% in the coming years. Image: BofA Global Research

High-Yield (HY) Spread USD

High-Yield (HY) Spread USD Goldman Sachs expects high-yield spreads to tighten over the next 12 months, which is a positive sign for investors and a promising outlook for the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve and Recessions Historically, a steepening inverted U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve has often been a sign that a recession is on the horizon. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

The 10Y-3M Yield Curve

The 10Y-3M Yield Curve Although the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve is not on the verge of uninverting, historical data suggests that the “uninversion” of the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of an impending recession. Image: Bianco Research