Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E So far this year, rising real yields have forced the S&P 500’s multiple lower, a classic setup where higher discount rates squeeze P/Es without necessarily triggering a price collapse. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The rise in the U.S. 10-year real yield anchors valuations: it won’t drag prices lower if earnings keep surging, but it caps multiple expansion and raises the odds of P/E compression if growth disappoints. Image: J.P. Morgan
MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth stocks, even though the rally isn’t dead. Image: Bloomberg
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5% do, leaving Treasuries with higher yields than almost every blue-chip stock. Image: Ned Davis Research
10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates, not their level, that has driven equity returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield spreads are pricing in a smooth ride. Spreads are tight, balance sheets look solid, and the risk is that confidence slips into complacency. Active monitoring helps catch early signs of stress.Image: Topdown Charts