Relative Performance of Bank Shares vs. Index and 5-Year Treasury Yield This chart suggests the relationship between interest rates and relative bank performance. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields 10-year U.S. Treasury yields tend to move with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. Image: Credit Suisse Research
S&P 500 Dividend Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield The S&P 500’s dividend yield is now much higher than the 10-year Treasury yield. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal
Global Debt Levels vs. Global Bond Yields Global debt is at all-time high, while global bond yields are at all-time low. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Real Yield Curve and 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Real Yield Curve Economic stress remains as the U.S. real yield curve remains in negative territory. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
High Yield Volatility High yield volatility is likely to remain elevated from economic weakness. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 25.9% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
10-Year Treasury Yield – Current vs. 2009 Will U.S. 10-year Treasury yields turn higher, as in 2009? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
5-Year TIPS Yield (U.S. Real Rates) vs. Gold Generally, when the U.S. 5-year TIPS yield goes down, gold goes up. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal