U.S. Rates and Yield Curve
U.S. Rates and Yield Curve The inverted 10Y-3M yield curve suggests that monetary policy is becoming too tight. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Rates and Yield Curve The inverted 10Y-3M yield curve suggests that monetary policy is becoming too tight. Image: Fidelity Investments
Value vs. Growth and U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield The outperformance of U.S. growth stocks relative to U.S. value stocks suggests lower bond yields ahead. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
% of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends Yields Greater than the 10-Year Treasury Yield Dividend yields on S&P 500 stocks seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: SunTrust Private Wealth Management
Nominal and Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields The real 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already negative. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Total Return Index and U.S. High Yield/High Grade Chart suggesting a bullish market that is getting stretched and vulnerable. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China 10-Year Yield and Copper to Gold Ratio Chart showing the weekly correlation between China 10-year yield and the copper to gold ratio (R² = 0.58). Image: Bloomberg
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession over the next 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, decreased to 25.9% in January. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted This chart shonws that 40% of the 10-yield spreads have inverted again, as the coronavirus spreads from China. Image: Real Investment Advice
The 10Y-3M Yield Curve The 10-year less 3-month yield curve flattens, as the coronavirus spreads from China. Image: Bianco Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Viral Outbreaks This chart shows that the impact of previous viral outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, H7N9, Ebola) on U.S. bonds was short-lived. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research