S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield

S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of just 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread

S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically react early to shifts in market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve

U.S. 10Y-2Y Yield Curve While a steepening inverted yield curve has historically warned of recession, persistent economic strength could mean a more positive outlook for U.S. equities in 2025—though this would mark a notable break from the past. Image: Deutsche Bank

1987 Market Crash – DXY Dollar Index and 10-Year UST Yield

1987 Market Crash – DXY Dollar Index and 10-Year UST Yield Bond yields rarely rise while the dollar falls, as higher yields usually boost currency appeal. This unusual trend signals waning confidence, similar to the pattern seen before the 1987 Black Monday crash. Image: Bloomberg