10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. Treasuries ended a stellar 2025, but few expect a repeat this year. Lower rates may offer some support, but heavy debt issuance, sticky inflation, and ongoing fiscal spending could keep long-end yields from falling much further. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden jump in interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High-Yield Spreads vs. Corporate Cash Flow as % of Debt (Leading Indicator) Rising AI infrastructure spending and swelling debt are draining liquidity, setting the stage for weaker cash-flow-to-debt ratios in 2026 and wider credit spreads across the sector. Image: Bloomberg
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.1%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Survey – Where Do You Expect 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields to Be One Year from Now? Deutsche Bank’s latest survey shows that 52% of participants expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.25% next year, with the bank’s strategists calling for 4.45% by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Based on Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E The S&P 500’s earnings yield, based on Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E, sits near century lows. But if history is any guide, valuations can defy gravity for years. Just remember the late ’90s. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 has diverged from bonds in December, largely ignoring the bond market selloff despite 10-year Treasury yields rising notably this month. Stocks seem more focused on solid earnings and the upbeat tone in tech than on rising rates. Image: Bloomberg
Median U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cuts Cycles Fed rate cuts usually pull short-term yields lower, but long Treasury bonds don’t always fall in line. Inflation expectations, shifting bets on future policy, or a flood of new debt can just as easily push them higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield With the S&P 500 equity risk premium slipping below zero, markets are flashing a warning: risk isn’t being rewarded anymore. Image: Bloomberg
Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a clear sign of normalization in bond markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield Sure, U.S. equities are expensive, but inflation and debt worries make bonds no easy refuge either. The smart move now? Stay selective, not scared. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research