S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move, it tends to last. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Positioning in equities continues to lag S&P 500 earnings growth, leaving scope for the rally to run if revisions hold up and macro risks remain contained. That dynamic could pull more capital into equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns During Earnings Seasons During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that pace. That’s definitely not a “normal” earnings season. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
YTD Change in S&P 500 Price, Earnings, and Valuation The S&P 500 has pushed higher this year, but valuations have eased as earnings expectations outpace price gains. When profits accelerate, markets can rise without stretching multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%. That kind of optimism tends to look compelling right up until it doesn’t. Image: Real Investment Advice
Magnificent Seven and S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth After several quarters of narrowing performance between the Mag 7 and the S&P 493, the gap widened sharply again this quarter as the Mag 7 pulled decisively ahead. The concentration risk story isn’t going away anytime soon. Image: J.P. Morgan
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are pacing for 32% earnings growth this year, more than double the S&P 500’s 15%. With tech momentum still running hot, betting against them looks like a tough call. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season keeps reinforcing the same message: corporate profits aren’t cracking yet, with 61% of S&P 500 firms smashing Q1 estimates by at least a standard deviation, while just 5% fell short. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech (Market Cap and Earnings) The tech pullback has left a bigger disconnect from earnings expectations. Once the mood shifts, risk appetite could roar back and drive stocks sharply higher. Fundamentals haven’t changed much, just the mood. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Evolution of S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Optimism is building on Wall Street. Analysts have lifted their S&P 500 bottom-up earnings forecasts for Q2 2026, betting on stronger corporate profit momentum through the year. It’s encouraging to see sentiment turning more positive. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation