Valuation – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward Price/Earnings Ratio Despite higher real rates, the S&P 500’s valuation remains elevated. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Morgan Stanley expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $195 in 2023 and $241 in 2024. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – S&P 500 Forward EPS Will 12-month forward EPS start to rise in H2 2023? Image: Alpine Macro
Earnings – S&P 500 LTM EPS Growth YoY Morgan Stanley’s non-PMI leading earnings indicator does not bode well for EPS growth. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth vs. S&P 500 YoY Earnings revisions breadth is falling sharply. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Should equity investors worry that earnings estimates are still very extended from the long-term growth trend? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Earnings Surprise % Recent earnings surprises are slightly positive. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 LTM EPS and Long-Term Trend in Earnings So far, the S&P 500’s earnings trend is still intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Drawdown from 12-Month Rolling Peak – S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The median decline in S&P 500 earnings over the past 12 recessions has been -13%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – PPI vs. U.S. EPS Growth U.S. earnings per share are expected to decline. Image: Steno Research