S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons The S&P 500 typically rises during the first four weeks of earnings season, loses steam in the weeks that follow, and regains momentum as the next reporting cycle approaches. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs The U.S. macro picture remains solid for now, reinforcing the optimism spreading across Wall Street. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Earnings Growth This was no ordinary quarter. Even after stripping out the “other income” boost from mark-to-market gains on private equity and venture stakes, S&P 500 earnings still jumped 31% year over year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Strong U.S. earnings expectations and resilient corporate profits are keeping recession fears at bay and bolstering market optimism.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in large-cap MCG and Tech has surged, leaving the sector overweight and much closer to where it should be given today’s earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings growth is set to accelerate from 25% in Q1 to 34% in Q2, a pace rarely seen outside the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is repeating the same refrain: corporate profits are still resilient. 64% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while only 8% have missed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Revisions Large-cap tech companies have seen upward earnings revisions, but positioning remains only modestly overweight at the 54th percentile. That gap to fundamentals leaves some air for a catch-up trade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate There’s no sign of cracks in earnings momentum. Almost 88% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with the beat rate running well ahead of the 74% long-term average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Aggregate Earnings Surprise – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Philly Semiconductors, Bloomberg AI Value Chain The S&P 500 just posted its strongest earnings season in years, powered by AI-driven profits. When the index beats estimates by this much, investors are more comfortable paying rich valuations. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio On the Shiller CAPE, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere, the kind that thrills investors on the way up and has a habit of burning them on the way down. Levels like this have a track record of slimmer returns and higher risk. Image: Goldman Sachs…